1. “North Korea has changed”… Gun-geon responds, why?
North Korea fires a missile about once every two days. Yesterday, two ballistic missiles were fired in the morning, followed by a military formation flight in the afternoon. If there is a characteristic feature of the recent series of provocations, it is ‘back-to-back’. Yesterday, North Korea fired two missiles, one flew 350 km and the other 800 km. The distance from Pyongyang, the launch site, to Gangneung, where the ROK and the US launched anti-missile fire is 350km – in the process, there was also an accident with the camel Hyeonmoo 2. In addition, 800 km the one distance on the high seas of the East Sea where the US aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan is sent. The missile fired on the 25th of last month flew 600 km, which is interpreted to take into account the distance to Busan Port, where the USS Ronald Reagan entered at the time. The fact that North Korean bombers and fighter squadrons made a demonstration mission yesterday afternoon appears to be a counter-reaction to the previous air-to-surface missile bombing exercise by the ROK and the US Air Force prompting eight fighters in response to a series of provocations from North Korea.
So far, North Korea has refrained from provocations when US strategic assets are mobilized, but there has been a shift in its strategy. North Korea has recently enacted a nuclear force law. It means that he has started to move towards a nuclear weapons state by preparing guidelines for the use of nuclear weapons. It sends a message that future negotiations with the United States will not be negotiations on denuclearization, but rather negotiations on disarmament between nuclear powers. The reason North Korea can come out so strong is because the US and China have been cracked by the war for hegemony. International sanctions against North Korea are almost meaningless unless China gets involved. Now, there is no reason for China to help the United States because of obvious conflicts in the Taiwan Strait, etc., and yesterday’s UN Security Council meeting ended without any profit due to the opposition of China and Russia. With the support of China at its back, North Korea is now able to use a more aggressive strategy by neutralizing international sanctions. In a situation where there is no possibility that the United States will recognize North Korea as a nuclear power at this time, North Korea is likely to continue to develop its nuclear and missile technologies. This is why there is speculation that the 7th nuclear test is imminent.
2. China keeps quiet in front of Xi Jinping’s coronation
The 20th Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which opens on the 16th, is known as the coronation of Chinese President Xi Jinping. This is because it is expected to lay the foundation for a long-term rule. China is so focused on the party congress that it is analyzed that North Korea will also postpone high-intensity provocations, such as nuclear tests, after the party congress in order to save China’s face. Live commercial broadcasts in Cantonese, which is difficult to censor, have been suspended on Douin, the Chinese version of TikTok, and all outbound traffic has been cut off in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. It seems like a great power to prevent Corona from spreading to Beijing, but it seems that it also tries to separate independence and stop the movement of Uyghurs, who are classified as the most dangerous factor. In the midst of this, the Chinese Communist Party’s cyber security authorities have launched a special campaign to stamp out rumors and disinformation. The crackdown, which began last month and continues until the end of the year, is a harsh response to fake news about important events, policies, natural disasters, and infectious diseases of the party and government, but analysis is it emerged that it was a campaign before the party’s convention. When the long-term government strategy for President Xi Jinping, which has been putting so much effort into this, is completed, how the situation in Northeast Asia including North Korea will change is expected to be of interest in the future.
3. A month before the US midterm elections… a changing tide
The mid-term elections in the United States are characterized by a vote of confidence in the current president, and are therefore considered unfavorable to the ruling party. In fact, there have been many cases where the ruling party has lost in history, but if the Democratic Party loses this year as well, the elderly President Biden could immediately fall into a lame duck, so he took the ruling powers emergency It is for this reason that every effort is made to control inflation measures such as the inflation reduction method. The economy is a weakness for Biden, but it is a good thing that anti-conservative votes, including women, are mobilizing after the Supreme Court ruling against abortion. Biden’s approval rating is reviving, especially since oil prices have recently fallen again. In an NPR poll this morning, 44% returned to the level just before last year’s disastrous Afghan troop withdrawal.
However, the decision to cut production by OPEC Plus, a group of oil-producing countries, has fueled domestic politics in the United States. This is because if oil prices rise again, public sentiment could worsen. Right now, there is no big deal in the US House of Representatives for a Republican victory, but a majority in the Senate is leaning back from Republicans to Democrats. However, it is difficult to predict how sensitive security issues will affect the election if North Korea conducts its seventh nuclear test at the last minute.
4. Additional severe punishment to dismiss injunction… Lee Jun-seok loses strength
The People’s Strength Ethics Committee decided to suspend former party member Lee Jun-seok for another year after a marathon meeting that lasted from yesterday afternoon to midnight today. In addition to the six month suspension of party membership decided on 8 July, the disciplinary period has been extended to January 2024. The return of the party leader until June next year has now passed, and the a request for an injunction to stop the effect of the Emergency Response Committee, Jeong Jin-seok, who remained a variable, was rejected, and the influence of the former leader Lee in the party is expected to weaken rapidly. Former CEO Lee did not participate in the ethics committee, and also hinted at his own path by saying on his Facebook page, “I will go my own way more lonely and lonely in the future.”
The power of the people, who had been worried that the application for an injunction might be cited again, has now resolved the uncertainty of the leadership system. Rather, the time has come to test the ability of the ruling party to show its abilities as the ruling party without the former leader who led the battle of public opinion by raising the support of the young people for the conservative party and raised various agendas such as the Seojin Policy and the Innovation Committee.
5. Lee Dae-ho Last game tomorrow… 10 times forever
Players born in 1982, such as Lee Dae-ho, Choo Shin-su, and Oh Seung-hwan, who were born in the year of professional baseball, are known as the golden generation and have led Korean baseball. Among them, the presence of Lee Dae-ho, who played all stages of Korean, American and Japanese professional baseball, was clear. Lee Dae-ho made a name for himself as a big hitter for Lotte in his hometown of Busan. In 2010, he won seven batting trophies, unprecedented in the history of the KBO league, and became the MVP of the regular season. He also set the record for home runs in nine consecutive games that year. After that, Lee Dae-ho advanced to Japanese professional baseball and the major leagues one after the other, widely publicizing the status of the Korean hitter. Lee Dae-ho, who performed brilliantly in international competitions such as winning a gold medal in the 2008 Beijing Olympics, was nicknamed the ‘fourth hitter of Chosun’ by baseball fans.
Returning to the domestic stage in 2017, Lee Dae-ho set his hometown team Lotte as his final goal. In the retirement season at the age of 40, Lee Dae-ho showed an incredible fighting spirit, scoring 100 RBI that even the national hitter Lee Seung-yeop could not achieve. However, as Lotte failed to advance to the postseason for five consecutive years, Dae-Ho Lee could not fulfill his final baseball dream. Tomorrow is the last chance to see the player Dae-Ho Lee. Lotte will hold a retirement ceremony for Lee Dae-ho in the final game of the season to be held at the Sajik Stadium in Busan tomorrow and will permanently retire his number 10 shirt.