[주간증시전망] Monetary policy transition expectations continue… “The sense of alertness continues” :: Maeil Business TV News

The KOSPI came close to 2,500 thanks to buying by foreign investors.

According to the financial investment industry today (13th), the KOSPI finished at 2,483.16 on the 11th, up 5.74% from a week ago. During this period, foreigners bought stocks every day except one.

Foreigners started buying from 29 September and Net bought more than 6.3 trillion won stocks. This month, net purchases amounted to 2.64 trillion won.

Analysts suggest that foreign investors may be reducing the proportion of Chinese stocks and increasing the proportion of Korean stocks in emerging market stocks amid prospects of conflict between the US and China following a third consecutive term of Xi Jinping.

The comment that US inflation may have passed its peak is also having a positive effect on investor sentiment. Last month, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 7.7%, below the market forecast (7.9%) as well as last September (8.2%).

Accordingly, in the New York financial market, the possibility that the US Federal Reserve System (Fed) will raise the base rate by 0.50 percentage points at the regular meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next month is spreading.

The likelihood of the US benchmark interest rate rising above 5% per annum has also fallen significantly.

According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch, the Fed Funds Futures Market expects the Fed to raise interest rates by 0.50 percentage points next month and 0.25 percentage points in January and March next year, raising the base rate of 5% per annum. It reflects a high possibility of stopping the cycle.

In this regard, in the financial market this week (14-18), it is expected that attention will be focused on the comments of the members of the Fed and the flow of the basic (fundamental) conditions.

Kim Yu-mi, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said, “As expectations for the pace of Fed tightening have strengthened in the financial market, preference for risky assets has risen.” ” he explained.

Ahn Jae-gyun, a researcher at Shinhan Investment & Securities, said, “The justification for the US Fed to raise interest rates by 0.75 percentage points next month has weakened.”

Expectations are emerging that the domestic stock market will seek to rise further, bearing in mind the extent of the Fed’s rate hike.

Kim Young-hwan, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, suggested 2,370 to 2,520 as the KOSPI’s weekly fluctuation range, saying, “Expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy transmission will be extended due to the favorable price index.”

“However, it is necessary to remember that this rally is accompanied by lower earnings forecasts and an increase in valuation (valuation),” he stressed.

Kim Seong-geun, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, said, “The upward trend may continue, but vigilance against the Fed is necessary.”

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[ⓒ 매일경제TV & mktv.co.kr, 무단전재 및 재배포 금지 ]

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