◀ anchor ▶
This week, I continue to look forward to the new year in each field.
Today we will take a look at the automotive market.
The growth of electric vehicles in the domestic and overseas markets this year has been steep.
The government says it will further strengthen the eco-friendly vehicle supply policy next year, but let’s take a look at how the New Year’s car market will change in Plus Now today.
Plus Now Start Now.
Today, I am with Professor Pil-su Kim of Daelim University.
Hello?
◀ Pilsu Kim / Professor, Department of Future Automotive, Daelim University ▶
Hello?
◀ anchor ▶
This is the last broadcast of the year.
◀ Pilsu Kim / Professor, Department of Future Automotive, Daelim University ▶
Yes.
◀ anchor ▶
The government announced that next year would be the first year of zero-emission car, what did it say?
◀ Pilsu Kim / Professor, Department of Future Automotive, Daelim University ▶
Electric vehicle sales this year are expected to reach 100,000 units.
About 9,000 hydrogen electric vehicles have been sold.
Compared to last year, the number of electric vehicles has increased by about double.
Hydrogen cars increased by 1.5 times.
However, I think the government’s intention is to continue this growth.
This means that next year, 500,000 zero-emission vehicles will be poured into eco-friendly vehicles.
However, this means not only vehicle subsidies, but also technology development and expansion of use such as charging infrastructure.
◀ anchor ▶
Only 100,000 units were sold this year, but 500,000 units next year?
◀ Pilsu Kim / Professor, Department of Future Automotive, Daelim University ▶
It’s 50 million.
◀ anchor ▶
How do you spread it?
◀ Pilsu Kim / Professor, Department of Future Automotive, Daelim University ▶
It is quite worrisome.
In order to become 500,000 units next year, we will have to supply approximately 250,000 units, and I am not sure if that is correct, but it is a concern for the first time.
In particular, there is no place to charge the biggest complaint in the charging infrastructure part.
In particular, there was a lot of trouble with row houses and multi-family houses, but it also has the intention of intensively supplying charging infrastructure in these areas.
◀ anchor ▶
However, I think there was an announcement like this, that electric vehicle subsidies will be given next year.
How does it change?
◀ Pilsu Kim / Professor, Department of Future Automotive, Daelim University ▶
Yes.
The individual subsidy itself was about 8 million won from the central government this year, but it can be seen that it will drop by 1 million won to 7 million won next year.
After that, you can see that the standards for differential payment will also change.
As you can see, this year it is 60 million won and 90 million won.
So, if it was less than 60 million won, I received 100% of it, and if it was less than 90 million won and over 60 million won, I received 50%, and if it was more than 90 million won, I received no subsidy at all.
◀ anchor ▶
However, if the price of the supported vehicle changes like this, the sale of the vehicle will also be affected.
◀ Pilsu Kim / Professor, Department of Future Automotive, Daelim University ▶
That’s right.
There are models that have adjusted their prices to receive 100% subsidy last year.
For example, vehicles such as Tesla Model 3, Mercedes-Benz EQA, or Genesis GV-60 are not eligible for support.
◀ anchor ▶
These are the cars that were sold for 60 million won to receive 100% subsidy, right?
◀ Pilsu Kim / Professor, Department of Future Automotive, Daelim University ▶
Yes.
Such a car model has no choice but to be excluded from support because the reduction of 5 million won to 55 million won.
◀ anchor ▶
I guess so.
◀ Pilsu Kim / Professor, Department of Future Automotive, Daelim University ▶
Likewise, between 60 million won and 90 million won is reduced by 5 million won from 5500 to 8500.
However, in this case, it is probably better to think about it.
Also, for example, the current GV-80 model is subject to electrification, but the 90 is said to cost less than 85 million won.
However, for example, Tesla Model Y is excluded from support because high-end models cost more than 85 million won.
However, next year, as I mentioned earlier, the number of electric vehicles and the number of electric vehicles supplied will increase significantly.
From 75,000 units this year to 165,000 units next year, you mentioned the cumulative number of 500,000 units earlier.
◀ anchor ▶
Reduce the subsidy amount and increase the number of vehicles to be supported.
◀ Pilsu Kim / Professor, Department of Future Automotive, Daelim University ▶
Yes.
◀ anchor ▶
It seems like this kind of competition.
Competition for electric vehicles and new vehicles will intensify next year
seems like it?
◀ Pilsu Kim / Professor, Department of Future Automotive, Daelim University ▶
That’s right.
I think it would be good to see about 20 new cars in and out of the country.
First of all, in Korea, a model called Hyundai Motor’s mid-size sedan Ioniq 6 comes out.
This model was probably the model I was interested in when releasing a concept-specialized model called Propeci, which was released in March of last year.
It can be seen that it is made on this basis, and in the case of Kia Motors, it is probably the first full change in 5 years, and the compact SUV Niro comes out as a completely changed model.
Two models are being released: the Niro is an electric car and a hybrid car.
Another Genesis GV-70 electrified model.
Also, for example, in Ssangyong Motor, it would be good to see an electric car based on the Korando.
◀ anchor ▶
The Korean market is becoming a battleground for the world’s future automobile market.
◀ Pilsu Kim / Professor, Department of Future Automotive, Daelim University ▶
That’s right.
It can be seen that the imported car market itself is very spread out.
Perhaps it can be seen that there is a lot of anticipation in the future in terms of whether it will fight fiercely with domestic cars centering on these imported car models.
◀ anchor ▶
What cars are available?
◀ Pilsu Kim / Professor, Department of Future Automotive, Daelim University ▶
It can be seen that there is a lot to look forward to.
For example, in the case of Audi, various versions of the QE were released at the end of the year, but the QETRO model is coming out.
In the case of this model, it is a premium model of 60 million won, but at a relatively low price, it bets to increase sales.
After that, it can be seen that the current Mercedes-Benz model is the car that is not released even after entering the port for various reasons.
It is expected that the EQS, a sedan model, and the EQBA, a small SUV, and the EQB, an expansion model, will attract attention from consumers in the market, and BWM also seems to be able to see the I4 model of a hydrogen electric vehicle coming out.
◀ anchor ▶
We are well aware of the electric vehicle market, and we are very interested in hydrogen cars. How about the hydrogen car market?
◀ Pilsu Kim / Professor, Department of Future Automotive, Daelim University ▶
It can be seen that the hydrogen car market has a lot of interest.
When it comes to the global hydrogen car market, there are two models, Hyundai and Toyota, and even Honda.
However, it was discontinued in June of this year and fights with two models of two-wheeled carriages.
However, by 2020, it is 65%, overwhelmingly occupying the first place in the global market.
So, 7 out of 10 in the world are Hyundai Motors.
The global hydrogen car market is expected to grow at an average annual rate of over 57% by 2030.
Therefore, the market itself is expected to increase from 20,000 units this year to around 860,000 units in 2030.
◀ anchor ▶
It would be nice if there are a lot of different cars, which will give consumers more choice, but there are concerns like this year’s semiconductor supply/demand problem, raw material price hike, and whether car prices are going up because of these things.
◀ Pilsu Kim / Professor, Department of Future Automotive, Daelim University ▶
In fact, the price is rising due to the increase in manufacturing cost.
Actually, I’m looking at the US market as a normal standard.
However, the average price of a new car is around $45,000, which is 12% higher than last year.
And the price of a used car has risen even steeper, a 29% increase from the average price of about $29,000.
In Korea, there is probably an opportunity I mentioned before, but it is coming out that it has risen by 20%.
However, there are still many rumors that the price of new cars is going up, but first of all, the price of automobile steel sheet rose by more than 50% compared to the first half of the market at 120,000 won per ton.
There is a problem with supply and demand for semiconductors.
As a result, sales actually decreased by 15% this year, so due to these factors, the price of a new car next year will increase by about 5%, so we expect it to go up by about 1.5 million won to 4 million won.
◀ anchor ▶
The price of cars is also going up, but what I’m worried about is that the electricity bill is going up.
Are you saying electric vehicle charging rates are going up?
◀ Pilsu Kim / Professor, Department of Future Automotive, Daelim University ▶
That’s right.
As of October 1 of this year, the KEPCO announced by the government itself has increased by 3 won per kilowatt hour, hasn’t it?
However, there was a rumor that the electricity rate would go up again in April of next year.
◀ anchor ▶
right.
◀ Pilsu Kim / Professor, Department of Future Automotive, Daelim University ▶
But aren’t electric car owners going up at the same time, charging rates?
I worry a lot about this.
The Ministry of Environment announced in July.
Haven’t you announced a plan to change the charge rate for acute chargers?
However, if you look at the electric vehicle charging rate, it is about 292 won per kilowatt hour based on 50 kilowatts.
In addition, other charging facilities are about 3.9 won per kilowatt hour, so this will be applied for one year from 2022.
The problem is that after that, after February of next year, it can be seen that it becomes a little worrying.
Perhaps, the electric vehicle charging rate is realistically higher, and for example, KEPCO has a special discount system for electric vehicle charging rates that it has been doing since January 2017 to expand the supply of electric vehicles.
Also, since the basic rate goes up and the discount rate on the electricity rate disappears, it is probably good to think that it will go up.
◀ anchor ▶
It seems that the perception of driving an eco-friendly car because the maintenance cost is low needs to be changed.
Today, we looked at the outlook for the overall eco-friendly car market next year.
Thank you very much today.
◀ Pilsu Kim / Professor, Department of Future Automotive, Daelim University ▶
Thank you.
◀ anchor ▶
So far, it has been a home plus.
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