From this column it was literally said what the president and the minister expressed: “any improvement would jeopardize subsequent compliance and / or require citizens’ efforts”, higher than the current ones that the government would not compromise. In January, we claimed that Guzmán is a “world class” and has not come to leave his beliefs at the door of Columbia or gymnastics and fencing in La Plata. We indicate: “It will cover everyone’s mouth (January sphere.com). Did. The minister’s comments are excellent in New York. Nobody is a prophet in their land. Here he continues to be mocked and dodge bullets that try to steal another dollar.
Curros and successes
In this period we learned the difference between incognito operators and the academic and practical experience of what they have is not for sale.
The crowd of macro-colbbists and communicators of “outgoing envelopes” helped improve the offer. You don’t have to take away the merits. The work paid off.
Although there is no rush to close right now, everything is about to caramelize. Greed was winning, but fear is growing. The rebound of the pandemic is turning.
After so much pressure, if the government manages to restructure a significant percentage of the debt without giving up, it is a result. We will have to accept that a big step has been taken. In 2005, the deal was not concluded with everyone, where it reached 93% (2009). In the meantime, we have grown 7/8% for 8 years in default, with a lower country risk compared to the 2015-2019 period.
Disruptive violence: “The stigma of the flow”
The damage inflicted on the country by the default or debt rescheduling of August 2019 had already been done. We left the default in April 2016 to default on debt in 28 months. A difficult record to match with the world. Worthy of the Guinness pages, the same as asking in about 2 years 110,000 million dollars for a country that owes 200,000 dollars.
To think that they ruled with the mantra “stole everything”. An obscure businessman who repeated the “violent god pays”, like that of the Argentine post office and that of 1982 which Cavallo paid, transferring it to the whole of society. This time he played hard. The famous Carlos remained as “a Carlitos”. We relate it to the stigma of the flow. Who breaks and does not pay, “purely beautiful”. The title of an Oscar-winning film in 1956, in which the protagonist grew up in a marginal environment, had a difficult childhood, because of his father. The young Italian-American with blue eyes (Paul Newman) joined one of the neighborhood gangs to undertake a long patibular activity. Later with a completely new life and married to a charming lady, he reaches the top, discovering the best way to carve out his future: through sport …
Far from returning to the world, in 2018 the best team of the last 50 years has become the laugh of the universe and makes me cry from the Argentines. There has never been a “rain of investments”, indeed, investor confidence has been destroyed. A historic opportunity has been lost, as copyists often say.
Start over with the numbers
Argentina aspires with this debt renegotiation to regain lost ground between 2015-2019. If you cut at least $ 30 billion in payments, you would recover less than a year of 2017-2019 currency losses. Savings of $ 30,000 million represent around 10 points of GDP. An upset sample of the crumbling that the government of Alianza Cambiemos has proceeded. We would like to save double the dollar deposits that the private sector places in banks today. A piggy bank flourishes which contains about 3 times the freely available reserves left in BCRA on 10 December 2019. It would take more than a year and a half of imports to the volumes of the last months. Double the fiscal effort applied to the pandemic. Equivalent to more than the entire fall in GDP in 2020, 4 times credit to the private sector in dollars, 3 times bank reserve requirements in dollars.
Last week the minister with a rigid expression, immortalized in a leap agreeing with the vulture funds (representative photo). He blew up inflation and the recession, spoke of “green shoots” with incredible cynicism. We cannot omit, insolent and brazen like his whole gang, he said “it seems to me that the government has offered more than necessary.”
It seems to us something else, this time we saw library, talent, values, coexistence, acceptance of the rules of the game, respect, teamwork, discipline, commitment and humility. I think Martin Guzmán should pass the opinion of that anger through the triumphal arch.
Postgraduate professor at UBA and master’s degree at private universities. President of www.hacer.com.ar. Master in international economic policy, doctor of political science, author of 6 books. firstname.lastname@example.org