Apple Foldable iPhone Could Capture 25% of Global Market in First Year
- Apple is positioned to capture a significant share of the foldable smartphone market shortly after the anticipated introduction of its first folding device, according to industry analysts cited...
- The introduction of a folding iPhone represents a major shift for the hardware manufacturer, which has watched rivals build out the category over the last several years.
- While global competition centers heavily on Samsung, the situation in China presents a different hurdle.
Apple is positioned to capture a significant share of the foldable smartphone market shortly after the anticipated introduction of its first folding device, according to industry analysts cited by CNBC and additional coverage from international technology publications. Market research from Counterpoint Research indicates that the Cupertino-based company could secure a 25 percent share of the global foldable phone market within its first year on shelves, with shipments projected to reach 6 million units.
Global Projections and Competitive Landscape
The introduction of a folding iPhone represents a major shift for the hardware manufacturer, which has watched rivals build out the category over the last several years. Counterpoint Research estimates that Apple could climb to a 40 percent share of the worldwide foldable market by 2027, potentially challenging Samsung, which contributed to the development of the category by launching its first folding model in 2019. According to Neil Shah, a partner at Counterpoint Research, cited by CNBC, there is substantial latent demand for a folding device within the Apple customer base. Shah noted that numerous loyal users have previously resisted switching to Samsung to acquire a foldable phone, while others who made the switch could migrate back upon the release of an Apple-branded alternative. Projections from Smart Analytics Global offer a similarly aggressive outlook, estimating that Apple could capture 25 percent of the global market in 2026 and grow to 41 percent by 2027, displacing Samsung from the top position. Samsung is projected to hold roughly 33 percent of the market in 2026 before sliding to 26 percent in 2027, while Huawei is expected to maintain an approximate 24 percent share globally in 2026.
Regional Dynamics in China and North America
While global competition centers heavily on Samsung, the situation in China presents a different hurdle. Huawei controls over two-thirds of the foldable segment in China, where local manufacturers have aggressively expanded their product lineups. According to industry analyses, the arrival of an Apple folding device could spark a substantial replacement cycle among current iPhone users in the region.
Rival Hardware Releases Ahead of Schedule
Competing smartphone makers have scheduled hardware announcements to preempt or coincide with Apple’s anticipated product unveiling. Devices such as the Huawei Mate XT2 and the Xiaomi 18 Fold debuted ahead of scheduled industry events. Francisco Jeronimo, vice president of mobile devices at IDC, told reporters that this timing is deliberate.
Štiau că Apple vine cu un telefon pliabil, aşa că încearcă să o ia înainte şi, mai important, să se asigure că atunci când produsele Apple ajung în magazine, produsele lor sunt deja acolo pentru ca utilizatorii să le poată compara
Francisco Jeronimo, IDC
Both Xiaomi and Huawei are also emphasizing proprietary silicon in their latest hardware iterations. The Xiaomi 18 Fold integrates the XRing O3 processor, while the Mate XT2 utilizes Huawei’s new LogicFolding semiconductor technology, intensifying the hardware competition across processor design and physical form factors.