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Alba Iulia
Sunday, June 7, 2020

Coronavirus in Argentina: a survey and five data that worry for the next economy

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It might seem like a derivative of Stockholm Syndrome, but it is not. Before the advance of coronavirus in Argentina, people foresee a dark economic future and still ask to continue prioritizing health and maintaining the restrictions that affect their pocket. The conclusion comes from a survey to which Clarion He agreed exclusively and he analyzes the impact of the pandemic in the country.

The study is from Aresco, a consulting firm historically linked to Peronism but which has also measured in recent years for Macrism and different political actors. It is one of the oldest in the country: it has been four decades and some 4,000 polls have been published. His last survey was made between March 30 and April 1, with 2,116 cases in the City and Greater Buenos Aires, the areas most affected by the coronavirus.

Alberto Fernández appears with a soaring approval, as was only seen on three other occasions since the return of democracy: with Raúl Alfonsín, Carlos Menem and Néstor Kirchner. But the poll was done before the chaos to pay retirees, and that may affect the image of the current president. We will have to wait, “says Federico Aurelio, manager of the firm.

What hardly varies, at least in the short term, is the negative trend of economic expectations. The last measurement triggered an alert -indeed he was flushed- for a variable that is usually classified as a key for analysts.

The survey retrieves 5 data / percentages to summarize this scenario:

90.8% believe that it will negatively affect the economy in general and 80.4% in particular

It is the first piece of information in the chapter “Economic impact on society” that work brings. Of those 90.8 points that see a negative impact on the general economy, two thirds believe the pandemic will affect “a lot” and a third “quite”. Only 5.3% believe that there will be no consequences (“little” or “nothing”).

When discrimination by socioeconomic sector is made, the most concerned are those of the “upper middle / upper class“: 97.5% choose the option” a lot “or” a lot “.

number of tests against coronavirus worldwide

Then the consultant focuses more on the question: “How will it affect you in particular?” 42.5% answered that “quite a lot” and 39.9%, “a lot”: total, 80.4%. Here, the most concerned about the impact of coronavirus on the economy is the “middle” class, where the average rises to 87.3%.

As commented at the start of the note, despite this gloomy future that Argentine society imagines for the activity, the vast majority (79.4%) consider that the government must deal more with “coronovirus and its consequences”, that of the “economic problems of the country” (15.7%).

50.4% believe that their income will fall or disappear

Although it is clear that the peak of the pandemic in the country is far away – specialists now foresee it for mid or late May-, Aresco investigates on the day after isolation. “Thinking about the moment the quarantine is over, do you estimate that the family income will be …?”

poll-aresco2

Again the negative look wins. A 46.7% estimate that their family’s income will be “worse than before quarantine” and 3.7% directly foresees that “it will have no income”: total, 50.4%. On the other hand, 33.1% consider that they will remain the same and 9.6% expect an improvement.

69.4% do not know how they will cope with these lower incomes and 53.6% foresee labor problems

Here is one of the most uncertain data. The survey questioned the 50.4% that foresees lower or no income on “how they will manage.” And 69.4% recognized that “don’t know” how it will compensate for this fallWhat will the rest do? 17.4% “will use savings” and 13.2% “will ask for loans from acquaintances.”

poll-aresco3

Part of that concern and uncertainty is reflected in other data from the survey: 53.6% see labor problems. 46.1% believe that their “work will continue, but they will have difficulties” and 7.5% were even more pessimistic: they consider that “they will not continue working”.

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