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Thursday, April 9, 2020

Coronavirus: London hospitals at risk of reaching capacity “within days” with “tsunami” case

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London hospitals are at risk of being swamped “within days” by a “tsunami” case, warned a senior NHS official.

NHS Providers chief executive – who represents hospital and ambulance trusts – said hospitals in the capital are facing an “explosion” in demand as unprecedented numbers of staff are ill or self -isolated.

Marking this as a “nasty combination,” Chris Hopson said, “It’s the number of patients arriving, the speed at which they arrive, and their condition.

“They speak wave after wave after wave. The word often used for me is a continuous tsunami.”

Mr. Hopson’s verdict was darker than that of other medical experts.

Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London led the warning against modeling 250,000 deaths, which resulted in a tighter lockdown in the UK. He said the BBC’s surge capacity could not be breached.

County, death, case

Mainland China 3,237, 80,873

Italy 2.941, 31.506

Iran 988, 16 169

Spain 533, 11,826

Germany 26, 9,367

South Korea 84, 8,413

France 175, 7,730

United States 109, 6,469

Switzerland 27, 2742

United Kingdom 71, 1950

Netherlands 43, 1,705

Japan 36, 1,614

Norway 3, 1,470

Austria 4, 1 332

Belgium 10, 1,243

Sweden 8, 1,196

Denmark 4, 977

Malaysia 2, 673

Canada 8, 598

Australia 5, 452

Portugal 1, 448

Qatar 0, 442

Czech Republic 0.434

Greece 5, 387

Brazil 1, 346

Israel 0.337

Finland 0, 322

Ireland 2, 292

Slovenia 1,275

Singapore 0, 266

Iceland 0, 247

Pakistan 1, 247

Bahrain 1, 241

Poland 5, 238

Estonia 0, 225

Romania 0, 217

Chile 0, 201

Egypt 6, 196

Philippines 14, 187

Thailand 1, 177

Indonesia 7, 172

Saudi Arabia 0, 171

Hong Kong 4, 168

Iraq 11, 154

India 3, 143

Luxembourg 1, 140

Kuwait 0, 130

Lebanon 4, 124

San Marino 11, 119

Peru 0.117

Russia 0, 114

United Arab Emirates 0, 113

Ecuador 2, 111

Turkey 1.98

Slovakia 0.97

South Africa 0.85

Mexico 0.82

Bulgaria 2, 81

Argentina 2, 79

Armenia 0.78

Taiwan 1.77

Serbia 0.72

Croatia 0.69

Panama 1, 69

Vietnam 0.66

Colombia 0.65

Algeria 5, 61

Latvia 0, 60

Brunei 0, 56

Albania 1.55

Costa Rica 0.50

Hungary 1.50

Uruguay 0.50

Cyprus 0.49

Faroe Islands 0.47

Morocco 1, 44

Palestinian Territories 0.44

Sri Lanka 0.44

Jordan 0.42

Andorra 0.39

Malta 0.38

Senegal 0.37

Belarus 0.36

Azerbaijan 1, 34

Bosnia 0.34

Georgia 0.34

Oman 0.33

Kazakhstan 0, 33

Venezuela 0.33

North Macedonia 0, 31

Moldova 0, 30

Lithuania 0, 26

Tunisia 0.25

Afghanistan 0, 22

Cambodia 0, 21

Dominican Republic 1, 21

New Zealand 0, 20

Liechtenstein 0, 19

Burkina Faso 0.15

Martinique 1, 15

Jamaica 0.15

Ukraine 2, 14

Macau 0.13

Maldives 0.13

Bolivia 0.12

French Guiana 0, 11

Uzbekistan 0.11

Bangladesh 0, 10

Cameroon 0, 10

Guatemala 1, 8

Guyana 1, 7

Cayman Islands 1, 1

Sudan 1, 1

Professor Ferguson said: “We think that overall, with the capacity that is rapidly building up across the country, while the healthcare system will be intensely stressed, especially in the London regions, not break.

“That we will have enough capacity to ramp up across the country to deal with the rapidly growing epidemic at the moment.”

Hopson said staff at BBC Radio 4’s Today program were working on a five to seven fold increase in critical care capacity, which had never been done before.

But he warned that the extra capacity “is now being used very very quickly,” saying, “Most of them hang on, they all hang on, and we know we have the peak capacity in the center. Excel, but it fills up very quickly. “



The London ExCel center to be converted into a field hospital



Those with symptoms of coronavirus, such as a cough or fever, should self-isolate for seven days.

You should stay home if you or someone in your household has a high temperature or a new, continuous cough – even if it is mild.

  • Everyone in your household should stay home for 14 days and stay away from others as it can take 14 days for them to appear.
  • DO NOT go to your GP or the hospital.
  • Visit NHS.UK to check your symptoms and follow the advice of a specialist.
  • Call only 111 if you cannot connect, you feel you cannot manage at home, or if your symptoms do not improve after seven days.
  • If you are pregnant, you should call 111 if you have concerns about yourself or your unborn baby during self-isolation.
  • Pregnant women are advised to contact their midwife, after-hours helplines or a maternity team who will provide information on the need to go to the hospital.

A 4,000-bed field hospital called “Nightingale” is under construction in the Excel which is a large showroom in London’s Docklands.

Yesterday evening Mr. Hopson tweeted: “London trusts CEOs incredibly proud of what has been done, how quickly, to free up space / build capacity, but they are concerned about how quickly this extra capacity is filling up now.

“The preparation / planning has been incredibly helpful, but the scale of the increase in demand is out of range.

“It is evident that a number of hospitals are on a trajectory where their capacity for intensive care will become full within a few days.



Chris Hopson, NHS Providers, said: “The word often used for me is a continuous tsunami”

“The CEOs report that the NHS London regional team is working well and hard with them to agree on the next steps to take when this happens.

“Faced with this hospital demand, the ambulance, mental health and community services quickly adapted to do their best under the circumstances.

“Lots of good, innovative solutions to provide the best possible care given the enormous challenge ahead.”



Guy’s and St Thomas Hospital in London

NHS providers describe themselves as the organization of members of the NHS hospital, mental health services, community and ambulances that treat patients and users of NHS services.

Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London stressed that he believed the health system had the capacity to cope and that locking up would lead to a “plateau” of cases.

Read more

Coronavirus epidemic

He added: “So we are going to have some very difficult weeks, especially in hotspots – London for example.

“But we think, overall, with the capacity that is rapidly building up across the country, that if the healthcare system is severely stressed, especially in the London neighborhoods, it will not break.

“Perhaps in about three weeks, we hope that these current measures will smooth out this curve and start to lower the numbers.”

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