Discussion & Analysis | The Bucks are not good off the bench and may be worse, Middleton’s state is declining and it is difficult to renew a big contract – yqqlm

However, as the results of the playoffs in recent years have shown, the strong performance of Antetokounmpo alone is not enough to win the championship, and the team needs to have enough depth.

Middleton’s injury was a major factor in the Bucks’ elimination in the playoffs, but it also revealed the Achilles’ heel of their lineup — a weak bench. After Middleton was sidelined by injury, the Bucks were left with only two players on the bench: Bobby Portis and Pat Connaughton. George Hill averaged 16.3 minutes per game, but he shot a poor 20 percent from the field and averaged only 1.3 points per game.

The offseason presents the Bucks with an opportunity to revamp their roster. Portis and Connaughton’s contracts for next season are player options, and keeping these two players is a top priority for the team. Because, once they choose not to exercise the player option, the only resources the Bucks can use is a $6.4 million tax version of the middle class exception and a veteran minimum salary, which makes it difficult to recruit people who can match the ability of the two of them. matching players.

The Bucks also have a first-round pick they can keep for themselves, and if they’re willing to trade it, they could consider using it in a trade for George Hill, Brook Lopez and Grayson Allen , the three of them have a combined salary of about $26 million.

Bobby Portis

Both Portis and Connaughton will need to make future decisions this offseason. They all have player options in their contracts, and Portis will likely refuse to execute his $4.5 million contract next season, opting to opt out of the contract to test the waters in free agency.

Not enforcing the player option is a decision of interest. Last offseason, the Bucks could only offer Portis up to $4.5 million (120% of his 2020-21 salary). But things have changed now that Portis is eligible to sign a contract with a starting salary of $10.9 million because he has played for the Bucks for two consecutive years, which gives him “early bird rights.” Also, new contracts cannot be shorter than two years, with player options available in the final year.

If Portis signs a two-year, $22.6 million deal with the Bucks in the offseason, he won’t be a free agent until 2024, when he’ll be 29.

During the regular season this season, due to Lopez’s injury, the Bucks were short of insiders. Portis started 55 times and averaged 16.1 points per game, shooting 49% from the field and 41% from three. In the past two playoffs, he has started seven times, averaging 15.4 points and 11.3 rebounds in those games.

Market expectations for Portis are relatively high, and it is difficult to predict how much contract teams with cap space will give him, but for those teams without cap space, use a $10.3 million mid-level exception to sign. It’s definitely worth it. If the Bucks do lose Portis, they can only use a $6.4 million tax version of the middle class exception and a veteran minimum salary to find a replacement.

Pat Connaughton

Connaughton’s player option contract is $5.7 million, and there’s no limit to how much the Bucks can offer him in new contracts. The guard already has “bird rights” (at least three years with a team), so the Bucks can re-sign him at 30% above the salary cap.

During the regular season this season, Connaughton played 65 times, averaging 9.9 points per game, and his 39.5% three-point shooting rate is the highest of his career. According to ESPN, Connaughton made 146 3-pointers during the regular season, including 142 catch-and-shoot attempts, which ranks 19th among all NBA players this season. It is worth mentioning that the Bucks ranks fourth among all teams in assists from three-pointers this season.

The Bucks’ financial situation is not optimistic, and the Bucks have lost Dante DiVincenzo before. If Connaughton refuses to implement the player option, the Bucks must do their best to sign him. Connaughton’s next contract could be between $8 million and $10 million a year, like the two-year, $18.7 million contract his teammate Grayson Allen signed last October.

Chris Middleton

Middleton is still under contract for the 2022-23 season, but he is eligible for an extension this offseason. We all realized how important he was to the Bucks in the second-round playoff loss to the Celtics.

With the All-Star out, the Bucks had the lowest offensive rating of the eight semifinalists, shooting 28.5 percent from three and 25 percent from five to nine feet from the rim. Shooting percentage, both of which rank last among the eight semifinalists. With Middleton in the regular season, the Bucks ranked third in offensive rating and fifth in 3-point percentage at 36.6 percent.

Because Middleton has two years left on his contract (the final year is a player option), the Bucks can now renew him for a three-year or 2023-24 season if he agrees to decline a player option worth a whopping $40.4 million for the 2023-24 season. four-year contract. However, the starting salary for the new contract cannot be lower than the one he refused to execute, which would be a massive $40.4 million starting salary.

In addition, if Middleton chooses to exercise the player option for the final year, his contract extension will not have a starting salary limit. As long as the two sides reach an agreement, his new contract with the team can be 2 years and 50 million US dollars, and his salary in the 2024-25 season is 25 million US dollars.

Although Middleton has averaged 20+ points per game for three consecutive seasons, his shooting efficiency has dropped significantly. According to Second Spectrum statistics, during the regular season this season, Middleton shot only 39.2% off the dribble, down from 45.9% in the previous two seasons.

In addition, he is shooting 44.3 percent from the field this season, the lowest since the 2013-14 season; 37.3 percent from three is also the lowest since the 2017-18 season.

To renew a big contract with Middleton, the Bucks will definitely have concerns because of his state. But there is also the responsibility of the team, who have not controlled Middleton’s minutes in recent seasons, resulting in a very heavy load on him. Since the 2017-18 season, Middleton ranks seventh among active players in games played and fifth in minutes played. If Middleton renews his contract, he will turn 33 in the first year of his new contract.

Bucks salary slip for 2022-23 season

The Bucks’ total salary next season is $159.5 million, and the luxury tax line is $149 million. It is currently $10.5 million above the luxury tax line.

Guaranteed contracts total approximately $155.9 million, as follows: Antetokounmpo: approximately $42.49 million; Middleton: approximately $37.95 million; Jrue Holiday: approximately $33.67 million; Lopez: approximately $13.91 million; Gray Sen Allen: $9.35 million; Connaughton: about $5.73 million, player option; Portis: about $4.56 million, player option; George Hill: $4 million; T-Antetokounmpo: about $1.82 million, player option; first-round pick, about $2.45 million.

Non-guaranteed contracts total approximately $3.6 million, as follows: Rejon Tucker: approximately $1.81 million; Verdosa: approximately $1.75 million.

Free agents: Ibaka, Jordan Walla, Wesley Matthews, Jawan Carter, Lindell Wigginton.

Bucks current roster

Point guards: Jrue Holiday, George Hill; points: Grayson Allen, Connaughton, Verdosa, Rayjon Tucker; small forwards: Middleton, T-Antetokounmpo ; Power forward: Antetokounmpo, Mamukrashvili; Center: Lopez, Portis.

team needs

1. If Connaughton chooses not to stay, the Bucks need to find a scorer off the bench;

2. Need to improve at the small forward and power forward positions; if Portis chooses not to stay, they also need to find another center;

3. Find a qualified backup point guard.

Team resources

1. Draft right: No. 24 in the first round;

2. Free agents within the team: Connaughton and Portis;

3. Trading exception: a tax version of the middle-class exception worth $6.4 million;

4. Cash: $6.3 million in cash is available in the transaction.

Key Dates:

1. June 21: T-Antetokounmpo (brother Antetokounmpo) has a $1.9 million player option in his contract, and also has “bird rights” because he played for the team for three consecutive years . If he declines the player option, the Bucks can re-sign him at the salary cap. However, his market value is about 1.9 million base salary contract.

2. June 22: Connaughton’s $5.7 million contract for next season is a player option, and he needs to make a decision before this date;

3. June 29: Portis’ $4.6 million contract for next season is a player option, and he needs to make a decision before this date;

4. June 29: 2020 second-round pick Jordan Walla becomes a restricted free agent and is eligible for a $2 million qualifying offer. During the regular season this season, he averaged a career-high 19.1 minutes per game and averaged 7.9 points per game. He has scored in double figures in 21 games this season, including a career-high 28 against the Cavaliers and Clippers. Additionally, two-way contract player Wigginton is eligible for a $50,000 qualifying contract offer.

Renewal Eligibility

Lopez is entering the final year of his contract, and the Bucks can sign him to a four-year, $74.7 million contract (starting at $16.7 million). Although Lopez missed 69 games last season due to a back injury, he still plays an important role on the defensive end. According to Second Spectrum statistics, when the opponent shoots in the penalty area, when Lopez is the closest defender to the shooter, the opponent’s shooting percentage is 48.8%, which is the second lowest data among all defenders. Next to the Grizzlies’ Jaren Jackson Jr. The market value of Lopez is about 20 million US dollars in 2 years.

pick

The Grizzlies have a No. 24 first-round pick this year. But their 2023 first-rounder belongs to the Rockets and is an unprotected first-rounder; their 2025 first-rounder doesn’t belong to them either. If it’s a top-four pick, it belongs to the Pelicans. Picks 5 to 30 belong to the Blazers; the Pelicans also have swap rights to their 2024 and 2026 first-round picks.

They could use the No. 24 pick in the first round: EJ Liddell

EJ-Liddell, 21 years old, 2.01 meters tall, weighs 110 kilograms, from Ohio State University.

Liddell is one of the most improved students in college, and he has the strength to be a first-round pick. As a strong insider with a height of about 2 meters, his performance on both ends of offense and defense is in line with the trend of modern basketball. He has developed a long shot, hitting 38 percent of his 3-pointers in the college league this season. Liddell has a strong ability to handle the ball near the penalty area, an excellent low-post scoring ability, and a certain passing ability. His pick-and-roll quality is high, and he can provide a very comfortable screen to his teammates. On the defensive end he is also more comprehensive, with excellent anticipation ability and on-court awareness, plus he is always running non-stop, which makes him the backbone of the college team’s defense.

However, he also has shortcomings. For example, his actual height is less than 6 feet 7 inches, and his jumping and explosiveness are not outstanding. Will he still be able to score efficiently and handle the ball well when faced with NBA-level paint? If the answer to these questions is no, can he still be a quality complementary resource for a team? His metrics are less obvious, and it’s easy for scouts to underestimate his uncanny intangible qualities like defensive efficiency, intelligence and toughness on the court. Hopefully he won’t be ignored by scouts.

Author: Bobby Marks

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