Dr. Kobsak Pootrakool points out that next year’s economy will really burn. The crisis is expected to enter the real economy sector. The export, manufacturing and employment sectors are also advised to keep an eye on the recession of the US economy. Emphasize that Thailand must find a way to deal with it clearly. prepare well In particular, reserves must be stocked for the emergency.
Dr Kobsak Pootrakool, Chairman of the Federation of Capital Market Institutions of Thailand and Executive Vice President of Bangkok Bank Revealed at the Thailand Economic Outlook 2023 seminar on the Thai economy. Through the global economic monsoon, the world economy next year will be more challenging than this year, with various crises that will begin to enter the real economy. that the Thai economy would not escape from this situation
“The economy this year is difficult. But next year will be more difficult. because the crisis will enter the real economic sector Exporting, manufacturing, employment and companies through recession or recession. will happen next year And if we don’t do anything, it’s very likely we won’t get past the abyss. Because of the crises that are happening in the world, it will definitely happen to Thailand,” said Dr. Kobsak.
Anyway Signs of an economic crisis have already occurred in Thailand This can be seen from the value of Thai exports in August 2022 when the season is deducted. has been declining for 3 months in a row since May AND it’s still only an early signal. At the same time, information was also discoveredThe Bank of Thailand (BOT) recently said that domestic consumption for 2-3 months has been stagnant. So, when exports begin to fade and consumption does not move So, it is a challenge that Thailand must urgently seek control.
Kobsak Dr Having said that another thing of concern next year is the Developing Market countries or emerging market economies such as Lao PDR, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, El Salvador, Egypt, Latin American countries. and some European countries There will be financial problems in the country. And it will be heavily affected by the US Federal Reserve or Fed raising interest rates to solve inflation problems. which is the latest at 8.3%.
by assessing that US policy interest rate increase The Fed has also indicated that it will climb to a record high of 4.6 per cent over the next year. to curb the biggest inflation in 40 years
“Inflation extraction has increased to almost 9%, US interest rate increase to 4.6%. because now it has just started and is still far ahead. Therefore, the situation from now on is not easy. and believes that the United States He must take some strong drugs, such as raising interest rates to at least 5%,” said Dr. Kobsak.
while the interest rate is rising in Thailand Recently, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to raise the policy rate to 1% per annum immediately. This is considered a 2 times adjustment and from now on, it is believed that it should be adjusted 2 more times at the beginning of next year. to support the crisis that could occur in April 2022, and then likely to slow down
Kobsak Dr He said that in the policy administration next year What is most necessary to prepare especially to keep Thailand’s international reserves for the crisis that will happen in the middle of next year In terms of managing the exchange rate of the Thai baht, it is believed that if the baht depreciated due to the appreciation of the US dollar. It’s not a big concern. And on the other hand, it also helps the export sector, agriculture, Thai products, and tourism.
“If the crisis comes to the Emerging Market in the middle of next year, Thailand must not act as a victim. The reserve must be kept for next year’s end of year challenges and the following year. It will be the heart of Thailand to have the strength to move forward. China should open the country During this period, the government should seek funding for the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) to advertise in China, while promoting LTR, attract foreigners to invest, speed up the PPP project and send this news to’ the world to see Thailand,” concluded Dr. .Cobsak.