‘Dullayapak Preecharat’ analyzes 2 probabilities in China Rumors xi jinping coup

on 26 September Assoc Prof. Dr. Dulyapak Preecharach Deputy Director, Institute of East Asian Studies Lecturer in the Southeast Asian Studies Program Faculty of Arts Thammasat University to publish an essay on “Silent sport in China” Analysis of rumors of President Xi Jinping’s coup in China with all details as follows

“About the rumors about the takeover of Xi Jinping in China I see that there are two main methods to explain it.

1. If it is fake news The description would look like Xi Jinping is in quarantine only after returning from Uzbekistan. His political silence may also be a matter of security ahead of the Communist Party’s general assembly in the middle of next month in connection with the renewal of his power. Whoever achieves a feat in China will not be easy because the assembly must pass the decision of the Central Military Commission chaired by Xi Jinping. Both presidents are Xi Jinping. Communist Party Secretary And the military commander called “the state, the party, the army” fully under the power of Xi. Its power base is very hard to shake, and Xi also has a number of policies that push China to become a global power. There is the Belt and Road project, or BRI, which has created a turning point in the global geopolitical system. Therefore, with a large number of policy achievements, there is probably a large base of businessmen or citizens who are ready to support or protect the policies of Mr.

2. But if it is true news or enough to have some credibility The description emphasizes that Xi’s trip to Uzbekistan was the perfect time to seize power. Because this was Xi’s first foreign trip in two years. Xi also flew back from Uzbekistan suddenly, prematurely, and has since disappeared. Power grabs of high-level leaders are not unusual in Chinese politics. Zhao Ziyang, former vice president of the party and general secretary of the communist party, was politically purged and placed under house arrest for life. Although Xi has controlled the entire state, party, army, it is difficult for anyone to overthrow Xi’s power. But if the coalition of power networks of China’s famous former leaders such as Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao joins a group of high-level party and state leaders who have recently been removed and prosecuted by the law. Also the generals may not be satisfied with the role of the color in the Central Military Commission. Perhaps it is a cluster of power powerful enough to break or topple Xi’s power.

Moreover, Xi is breaking China’s tradition of succession by renewing power for a third term and changing the collective leadership system that has been used to make political decisions in the previous era. For example, during the period of Jiang Zemin Become a single leader where the main decision-making powers are in the hands of Xi Jinping only. It would create dissatisfaction with some political groups that they have to join forces to offset or overthrow their powers. And taking power before the General Assembly in the middle of next month is the perfect time.

Personally, I think the probability of Xi being a coup is extremely unpredictable and the percentage of it happening is very low. Many scholars have also heeded the banner that Xi Jinping’s coup is definitely fake news. But if we want to say that a coup in this context means a silent coup where some or part of Xi’s power is forfeited to lead to a new power structure in China’s political system. It keeps the leader and people close. Instead of moving tanks from key strategic points across Beijing and closing airways. Parallel ways It may be enough to have some data to analyze each other.

In the structure of the State Party of China, where the state, the party, the army are the main turbochargers, State power comes from the barrel of a gun. But the party must keep the gun barrel firmly in place. In what condition? The army is not a political organization where unity of command rests solely in the hands of its leaders. But the leaders of the parties will take control of the chain of command of the army. In this regard, the military coup is difficult because the army cannot be separated from the Party An elite group in state, party and military structures that were dissatisfied with Xi’s excessive consolidation and length of rule. Working together to coordinate powers across political organisations. It could also be converged in this pole of power to control and force Xi to step down or compromise his political role. To force Xi out of the top two positions in the party, the state and the military, would require enormous strength and a very high risk. But if the color is cut from some position, for example, to remove it from the army only It may not require much energy. But there are risks. Because right now, people in Lord Xi’s line control many important positions in the military. But it is not like this impossible. (There have also been rumors that some Chinese military leaders are dissatisfied with their retaliatory policies against the US and Taiwan. including China’s security policy towards India and the tendency of China’s stance towards the Russia-Ukraine War).

If it is true that the rumors that Xi has been removed from the control circle in the army. We have to analyze who will take over the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. In the case of General Li Qiaoming (who is rumored to be the supreme power in the Chinese army) he came from the Northern Army. But will the position of commander-in-chief be enough for him to become number one in the Chinese army? Because it is not the most powerful position in the army. Unless this general has other special political powers as an assistant.

Well, we don’t know exactly how much we can trust the news of a quiet coup in China. The best answer to this question is the public presence of color, yet the issue of color is not seized or discouraged in a possible academic fantasy about the inheritance of color. Which has a down color of power in 2022 and a neat political transition. The kind that Xi will renew his power and intend to resign at the 21st or 22nd party congress, that is, 2027 and 2032, or that Xi will be challenged and subject to a coup. and even the sudden and unexpected death of Xi Lowe’s Forecast This is partly because an undercurrent of small political parties is dissatisfied with the fact that Xi is consolidating power too much, and partly from the pattern of succession problems common in authoritarian states across the world and in modern Chinese political history.

In addition, Roger Garside’s book “China Coup”, a scholar on diplomatic politics, published by the University of California Press in 2021, analyzes that President Xi Jinping will soon face a coup by political rivals. This is mainly due to the overconfidence of color power. Causing the color to have many political enemies, although Garside sees that after the coup, the color China will become more democratic (I’m not sure if it’s what Garside looks like or if China still be a totalitarian party state.) But the academic debate and knowledge in Garside’s book weigh the issues of power and the game structure of China’s elite politics so thinly that Xi’s path to power appears to have periodic obstacles in its path.

Finally, even if the news about the Chinese coup is true or false or partly true, partly false But the scene about the seizure of power or color degradation has already been formed. Lliw’s political path from now on It’s amazing.”

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