Source: GF Futures Author: GF Futures
Research report text
The main points:
eggRegarding supply: the general supply of eggs in the place of origin is limited. From a stock perspective, the overall stock remains at a low level, and among these the number of laying hens that have just been laid is small; breeding units choose opportunities to cull old hens of the right age, and the number of hens that have been culled in some of them. areas may increase next week, but progress is limited. Inventories in production and distribution links are kept at normal levels. On the demand side: high prices in the terminal market are difficult to sell, and the delivery speed is average. Traders are careful when participating in the market and buying in small quantities at the point of origin. Overall: high prices in the terminal market are difficult to sell, traders are not motivated to buy goods from the origin, and there is a risk of a slight drop in egg prices in the coming days. After the drop in egg prices, traders may restock in stages, and egg prices may rebound in a narrow range in the second half of next week.
Strategy of the week:
It is recommended to wait and see, and radicals can be technically short term.
Last week’s strategy:
There is limited room for egg prices to rise and fall, so it is recommended to wait and see.
1-Spot price trend review period
The main force of egg futures fell 0.37% weekly, The price trading range was about 4200-4400 yuan/500KG, with a maximum of 4318 yuan/500KG and a minimum of 4236 yuan/500KG.
This week, the average price of eggs in the main production area was 5.66 yuan/catties, a month-on-month decrease of 3.25%; the average price of eggs in the main selling area was 5.87 yuan/catties, a month later. -month discount of 3.29%.
2- The relationship between feed cost and egg price
When the general trend of animal feed prices is falling, the price of eggs also shows a relatively obvious decline, and when the cost is relatively strong, the price of eggs is also more obvious.
The variation in the price of eggs is clearly greater than the price of animal feed. The difference is that because eggs are fast-moving consumer goods, the main factors that determine their short-term prices are their own supply and demand.cornWhen the price is at a low or high level for a long time, it will have a greater effect on the price of eggs. Currently, horn,soybean mealPrices remain high and volatile, indirectly supporting egg prices.
3- Feed costs rose slightly from month to month
This week, the prices of corn and soybean meal continued to rise slightly, and the cost of animal feed increased. The average cost of egg feed per catty was 4.01 yuan, a month-on-month increase of 0.50%.
4- The price of culled chickens dropped slightly
This week, the price of slaughtered chickens in the country’s main production areas fell slightly, with an average weekly price of 6.95 yuan/catties, a month-on-month decrease of 3.61%. This week, most breeding units still have a wait-and-see mentality, and a few breeding units have become more active in culling old hens, so the supply of culled hens has increased slightly . However, the operation rate of downstream slaughter enterprises is still not high, the purchase volume is small, the sales volume in the farmers’ market is low, and the overall demand is weak. Compared to the beginning of the week, East China had the largest decline, with an average price of 7.47 yuan / catties at the beginning of the week, a decrease of 5.22% within the week.
The price of commodity chicks in the market rose 0.20-0.30 yuan / feather, with an average price of 3.44 yuan / feather, a month-on-month increase of 1.47%. Yuan/Yu. At this time, the profit of farming laying hens is acceptable, and the demand for young hens in some areas has increased, which has driven the sale of chicks, and the prices of chicks have risen constantly. Currently, most breeder company orders are scheduled until mid-December, and some large factories are scheduled until the end and beginning of January 2023. The utilization rate of breeding eggs is mostly 60% – 70%, and some reach 80%.
6- The stock of laying hens is increasing slowly and slightly, but the stock is generally tight
In October, the number of laying hens in the country was around 1.185 billion, an increase of 0.08% month on month and a year on year increase of 1.37%. The new laying hens this month are mostly chicks resupplied in June. The price of eggs fell during the month, and the cost of feed continued to be high. In addition, it is more difficult to raise a brood after the temperature rises. sales volume fell by 10.68% month on month, so the number of new laying hens fell during the month. On the other hand, as the price of eggs rose to a high level this month, the breeding profit was good, and the enthusiasm of the breeding units to buy chickens was low, and the number of chickens culled decreased significantly. Overall, the number of new laying hens this month is slightly greater than the number of hens that have been removed, and the stock of laying hens has increased slightly.
7- The enthusiasm for adding columns has improved a little
In October, the price of eggs rose slightly and then rose again, and the center of gravity moved up again. The profit level of the farming units was acceptable, and the enthusiasm for buying chickens was not high. In addition, the price of chickens had destroy them. It accounted for 10.14%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points since the previous month. The current feed cost remains relatively high, and the breeding units have a strong wait-and-see mentality after buying chickens Although the general enthusiasm for stock replenishment has increased, they are still cautious. Spare chickens under 120 days old accounted for 14.82%, a slight increase of 0.08 percentage points from the previous month. The overall supply of the egg market is still at a low level this month, the proportion of the main laying hens has decreased slightly from the previous month, and the proportion of 120-450 days old laying hens is 75.04%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage. points from the previous month. Looking at the market outlook, the current stock of old chickens waiting to be cleaned is still limited, and the overall amount that can be cleaned in the later period is not much. or the progress of the reserve chickens is limited.
8-List statistics of the main production areas and circulation links (weekly)
9-The supply of small sized eggs is tight, and the proportion of medium and large sized eggs is still the main force
10-Price position of substitutes
On November 11, 2022, the Wholesale Price Index of 200 Vegetable Basket Products was 126.88, a week-over-week decrease of 1.22.
On November 12, 2022, the national average price was 25.13 yuan / kg, and the price of pigs decreased by 0.08 yuan / kg since yesterday, down 6.3% month on month and up 43.44% year on year;
11-period spot price differential analysis
Judging from the data, it is clear that the basis difference of eggs has a certain regularity. Before the new year, the basis difference showed a strengthening position, and the basis difference began to converge to negative after the holidays, until June and July, the basis difference gradually returned to around 0 value, By August and September, the basis difference rose to the highest position of the year, and after October, the basis difference varied within a certain range, and the trend depended on the base position of the year.
Judging from the current basis situation, on November 11, the egg basis was about 1340 yuan/500KG, the spot peaked and fell, and the basis weakened a little.
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