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Election results 2020. Waldemar Paruch: the second round will be a game of fears

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President supported by PiS Andrzej Duda and KO candidate Rafał Trzaskowski will play in the second round of presidential elections. Duda obtained 42.5 percent votes, and Trzaskowski – 30.3 percent – according to the late poll Ipsos survey. The second round of elections will take place on July 12.

According to the late poll Ipsos survey, the third result was obtained by a non-partisan candidate Szymon Hołownia (13.5 percent), who overtook the Confederate candidate Krzysztof Bosak (7.1%). The fifth result was obtained by the Left candidate Robert Biedroń (2.5 percent), sixth – candidate of the Polish Coalition PSL-Kukiz15 Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz (2,5 proc.).

Election results. A big question mark in the second round

In Paruch’s opinion, the election showed that Polish democracy was doing very well. He said that the turnout is high, but – as he noted – it is comparable to the turnout in the last parliamentary elections. – There is no great qualitative change here. Yes, there is admiration for the turnout, but it is a fractional difference – he said.

Referring to the first round of elections, the expert said that “she put a big question mark as to what the second round would look like”. – In a sense, Andrzej Duda will be decisive in the behavior of Szymon Hołownia’s electorate – said Paruch. According to the political scientist, if Duda manages to convince himself a quarter of this electorate, he will become president in the second round.

– On the other hand, Rafał Trzaskowski faces another problem, namely the aggregated electorate of him and the candidates potentially considered left-liberal, does not give him a win in the second round – believes Paruch. In his opinion, this will be a difficult situation to solve.

Warning signal for PiS

Paruch also noted the comparison of the results of the PiS parliamentary and presidential elections. – You should pay attention: Law and Justice lost about 2 percent. their constituents from parliamentary elections. Having a very strong and very good candidate in the presidential election is a very warning signal, it is not associated with the pandemic and its effects, but with the assessment of how many months from parliamentary elections the way of governance in Poland – said the expert.

He estimated that Trzaskowski gained little more than PO in parliamentary elections. He added that the electorate is estimated at 28 percent, in the survey Ipsos Trzaskowski received just over 30 percent. and this is – as he said – “some profit”.

– The two main candidates took over 70% general support, and this is less than two main parties that fought each other in parliamentary elections – said Paruch and here – as he emphasized – is the key to Szymon Hołownia’s electorate. Paruch also said that the electorate of Krzysztof Bosak would also have an important role to play, because – as he noted – it is not known to what extent Bosak voters would want to take part in the second round of elections.

Which fears will be stronger?

– I think we will have the most interesting second round probably from the Lech Walesa competition – Aleksander Kwasniewski, that is since 1995 – Paruch said. In others – he said – it was quite obvious who would win in the second round. In his opinion, currently a lot will also depend on how the campaigns of both candidates will look.

– First of all, which one will make fewer mistakes. And the second issue: which is stronger in Poles’ consciousness: are the fears of the Civic Platform’s return to power, which is represented by a very prominent PO politician (…), and how much stronger will the fears of Law and Justice be, i.e. before the next years of monopolization of government in Poland through this party, will it be in a sense a game of fears between one party and another. The question is which of them will be stronger – Paruch wondered.

Referring to the results of other candidates, he drew attention to Kosiniak-Kamysz. The political scientist said it was Kosiniak-Kamysz’s defeat. – At the same time, it is a defeat of the concept that the Polish Coalition was: the star of Paweł Kukiz ended, the Polish People’s Party is at the next historical turn to rethink its political strategy – he said.

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