Ji Yuan’s proposed Japanese chip goal “beyond 2 nanometers” exceeded China’s criticized as a castle in the sky, the possibility is shaky | blog post

On the same day that Rapidus was announced, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry also announced that it will establish an advanced semiconductor research and development center LSTC with the United States within this year, and has allocated a budget of about 350 billion. yen for this purpose. Japanese media analysis believes that LSTC and Rapidus will become the two pillars of Japan’s semiconductor revival. The former will develop the latest semiconductor technology with American companies including IBM, and the latter will be responsible for connecting research results with mass production and converting technology into products.

According to Japanese media analysis, 10 years ago, Japan did not invest in the development of cutting-edge products and lost to its opponents in international competition. This new company is Japan’s “last chance” to restore the 10-year gap.

This time, Rapidus has caused shocks in Japan and the global semiconductor industry, mainly because of its goal of 2 nanometers and below. Currently, the most advanced semiconductor process technology in the world is 3 nanometers. TSMC and Samsung Electronics began mass production of 3 nanometer chips this year, and plan to produce 2 nanometer chips as quickly as 2025. In contrast, Japanese companies can currently only produce about 40 nanometers.

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How big is the gap from 40nm to 2nm? Takashi Yugami, director of the Japan Institute of Precision Processing, previously wrote that from 40 nanometers to 2 nanometers, there are 32 nanometers, 22 nanometers, 16/14 nanometers, 10 nanometers, 7 nanometers, 5 nanometers and 3 nanometers in between. Breakthrough, “In other words, currently 2nm is ahead of Japan’s nine-generation level.”

It is precisely because of such a huge leap that many people in the industry and the media are not optimistic that Japan will be able to achieve the goal of 2 nanometers in the next 10 years. Li Cheng, an engineer at a Chinese chip design company, pointed out that if Japan set the target at 14nm or even just 7nm, there would not be so many doubts. Because starting from 7nm, the difficulty of designing and manufacturing chips has increased significantly. Currently, only Samsung and TSMC in the world have mastered the relevant technology. Li Cheng said that although Japanese companies are in an important position in the fields of memory chips, semiconductor equipment, and photoconductors, they are lagging behind in the field of semiconductor manufacturing. “It’s hard to believe that Japan can turn around within 10 years.”

Japan’s Kyodo News “poured a basin of cold water” on the country’s government from the area of ​​capital investment. The media said there is a huge gap between the Japanese government’s 70 billion yen in financial support for Rapidus and the US government’s $52.7 billion investment in the “Chip Act”, which “makes people question how determined the Japanese government is to revive the chip . industry.” . In addition, Kyodo News also mentioned that due to the stagnation of Japan’s semiconductor industry in the past 10 years, Rapidus may soon find it difficult to find skilled engineers and workers in Japan.

Perhaps it is precisely because of the realization that there are some shortcomings in the country that are difficult to make right for a while, the Japanese government indicates its hope of getting advanced technology on American companies. In July this year, Japan and the United States held the first meeting of the “economic version 2+2” talks in Washington, and reached an agreement on accelerating the development of next-generation semiconductors.

While working with the United States to develop the semiconductor industry, there are also voices of concern in Japan: Is Washington, which once held back Japan’s semiconductor industry, trustworthy? In the 1980s, Japanese products once accounted for more than 50% of the world’s semiconductor market, which prompted the United States to take various measures to suppress related Japanese companies. In 1986, the United States and Japan signed the “US-Japan Semiconductor Agreement.” Japan was required to open up the semiconductor market and guarantee that foreign companies would gain 20% market share in Japan within five years. Subsequently, the United States resorted to anti-dumping and other measures and imposed high punitive tariffs. As a result, Japan’s semiconductor industry began to lose its advantage.

Li Cheng said that the United States is willing to cooperate with Japan this time, to some extent, it also wants to pull Japan into its “small circle” of chips, and it requires Japan to keep up with policy stop the United States Chinese Semiconductors. Li Cheng predicted that according to the current regulations of the United States, Rapidus products that are expected to use a large number of American technologies may not be able to enter the Chinese market, and the loss of this huge market may further drag down development prospects Rapidus and other Japanese companies.

Chen Yan, executive director of the Japan Enterprise Research Institute (China), pointed out that he is not too optimistic about Rapidus’ prospects. Even if Japan excels in 2nm chips, even if they are developed and exported to the world, the premise is to ensure that companies can get the latest orders and continuously update products, which requires very large consumer market support. Obviously it is not enough to rely on the Japanese domestic market alone. In the chip market, the combined markets of the United States and Japan are less than 1/3 of the global market. Taking the memory chip market as an example, the world’s largest market is in China Chinese e-commerce platforms such as JD.com have a high demand for data storage, followed by the Southeast Asian market, not counting the Japanese and American markets for a large proportion. Chen Yan believes that it is very difficult for Japan to develop a new chip consumption market without China.

In addition, Chen Yan believes that 2nm and 3nm chips are mainly used in high-precision products in navigation, aerospace and other fields, and the current global demand is not large. “Nihon Keizai Shimbun” reported on the 22nd with the title “The Blind Spot of Semiconductor Nano-Competition, China Has the Last Laugh?” The fact that China is very quiet in the face of “Nano-Competition”. Automotive electronics manufacturers and consumers around the world need general purpose products beyond 10nm. Perhaps in three or four years, the global market will be filled with low-cost, high-quality, previous-generation technology semiconductors made in China. Although Japan has technically won, it may have lost in the market.