Mr. Kobsit Silpachai, Executive Officer of Economic and Capital Market Research, Kasikorn Bank (KBANK), said at the seminar “Thailand’s Prospects Economic Outlook”, revised the 2022 baht target to 35.25 baht / dollar from the previous estimate of 37.50 baht / dollar because of the financial market. have confidence that inflation in the United States has passed the peak This should slow down the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed). And there is a possibility that the interest rate will have to be lowered within the next year. This forecast caused the US dollar to decline. It is expected that the baht in 2013 will have an appreciation direction. by putting a frame at 33.50-34.00 baht / dollar
“In the next few months, the baht may fluctuate. and after March see the baht appreciation more clearly from incoming tourism However, the baht may not appreciate in a leap forward, “said Kobsit.
Although the domestic factor affecting the baht in 2023 is the higher economic growth in Thailand in 2023, although the world is facing a recession. It is expected that 20 million tourists will travel to Thailand next year, especially the hope of Chinese tourists. Thailand’s current account balance will improve. This was supported by tourism and less pressure due to energy prices. While the Bank of Thailand (BOT) will continue to raise interest rates in 2023 due to pressure on inflation. and to reduce the interest rate gap between the BOT and the Fed come next week The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25% and continue to raise policy rates to 1.75%.
In terms of foreign factors, the Fed has slowed the increase in the policy rate and cut the policy rate next year. weakens the US dollar
side of china may delay the opening of the country Because people are infected with COVID-19 In addition, the global economic recession puts pressure on the growth of the global economy affecting Thai exports There are also geopolitical tensions that they must be monitored.
“There is very little chance that the baht will have a chance to touch 40.00 baht / dollar or touch 32.00 baht / dollar as at the beginning of this year. Given that the appropriate currency for next year is 34.00 baht / dollar, and tourism is the main factor and factor, single baht especially tourists from China This will keep the current account balance from being negative anymore. it can cause the baht to appreciate a lot So, it may be necessary issuing measures, such as on exports,” said Kobsit.
