31.9 billion evaporated in the two days of opening, and indeed it is the first one among the new forces.
On September 29, Leap Motor, as the fourth new car company to land on the Hong Kong stock market, finally rang the bell successfully. However, what immediately awaited Leaprun was the new force’s record-breaking opening cut.
Following a 33% fall on the first day of trading, at the close of trading on 30 September, Leaprun’s share price halved to HK$24.8 per share, a 48.3% drop from the issue price, and the total market value fell to HK. $ 28.339 billion (About 25.6 billion yuan), the cumulative evaporation market value of 31.9 billion yuan in two days, compared to Xiaopeng’s ideal a year ago, the bleak is not a little.
salesYes, he rushed up, and the clock struck, but Leap Run not only did not find the favor of the capital, but instead met with ridicule. Leap Run’s dream of trying to make money with the help of the capital market had already been shattered from before it even started.
However, what’s even scarier is that it’s not just Leaprun’s dream that can be broken.
01 Unexpected break
In fact, no matter from a macro or micro perspective, Zero Run was already expected to break in the market.
From a macro perspective, as Zhu Jiangming himself said: “It is not really a good time, because the global situation is turbulent and it is in a downward channel.”
Long before Leapcar went public, the capital market’s enthusiasm for new car-making forces had already waned.
Last year, the landing of Xiaopeng and Ideal in Hong Kong stocks also suffered a break, and since 2022, the share price of “Weixiaoli” has continued to fall.WORLDIt also led to Buffett’s historic reduction in holdings, and at the same time, the fiery trend of the past two yearsnew energy vehiclesUpstream supply chain targets have now lost their luster in the capital market.
Naturally running zero will not be better. Although the prospectus was submitted in March to officially ring the bell at the end of September, Leapmotor’s trip to Hong Kong appeared to be a smooth ride, but some industry sources indicated that Leapmotor originally planned to raise US$1.5 billion , but due to the lukewarm response from investors, it was finally rejected. The IPO scale was forced to be reduced to 800 million US dollars, and only 6.057 billion Hong Kong dollars (about 5.47 billion yuan) final net fundraising.
Judging from the scale of the IPO that was forced to be compressed, the market attitude has clearly returned to rationality.
From a microscopic point of view, the sales performance of Leaprun, which has continued to increase in volume this year and after reaching the highest monthly sales of new forces, has indeed surprised many melon eaters.
But the smart person knows immediately that for the zero run with a negative gross profit, the higher the sales volume, the more serious the loss.
As we all know, the current zero mileage route is still low priced and high profile. The average price of a bike in 2020 and 2021 will be 78,400 and 71,600 (mostly T03), and will be 92,200 in Q1 in 2022 Although that the average price of a bicycle has increased, it has not yet exceeded 100,000. The end result is that under the situation of frequent fluctuations in global raw material prices, the cost pressure is higher than what has friends in a higher position like Wei. Xiaoli.
From the perspective of the gross profit margin, between 2019 and 2021, the zero gross profit margin was -95.7%, -50.6% and -44.4%, respectively. By the first quarter of this year, the gross profit margin was -25.21. % Although it has improved, it is still in negative territory. What’s more, in the cost of sales, the proportion of raw materials and consumables costs is still rising.
In contrast, Wei Xiaoli has collectively achieved a positive gross profit before the third quarter of 2020.
The prospectus data also shows that between 2019 and March 2022, Leapmotor achieved revenues of 117 million, 631 million, 3.132 billion and 1.992 billion respectively, with a cumulative revenue of 4.872 billion yuan; However, the three-year cumulative loss has reached 5.541 billion yuan.
As a new car-making force “Qianlang” similar to Wei Xiaoli’s age, today, apart from doubling final sales, Leaprun does not give many positive expectations to convince the capital market.
02 The dream of capital will be shattered
For the current tragic situation, Zhu Jiangming, as an authority, has already made psychological preparations: “We chose to go to the (market), the main reason is that we are not worried about the current time period, this is a long period. What we are more concerned about is the truth What about the quality, get our market share as soon as possible.”
It is difficult to say whether Chairman Zhu is very quiet or saving his respect, but after the opening collapse of Leap Run, perhaps the biggest panic is not Leap Run itself, but those friends who plan to go in public after Leap Run.
Under the leadership of Leapmotor, on September 30, the entire automobile sector was bleak green, especially the stock prices of new car manufacturers plunged, Wei Xiaoli fell 4-9 points, and even the decline of BYD more than 3%.
Analysts noted that the main reasons for the current decline in stock prices are: auto stocks fell with the broader market, and some individual stocks could not deliver their performance, triggering a double kill in profit and valuation;new energy vehicleThe competitive landscape is fierce, traditional forces are on the rise, and new forces face increased competitive pressure.
However, in addition to this, Leap Motor’s sustained and significant market outage for two days has hit the sentiment of the sector even more. It can be said that under the cold wind of the halving of Leapmotor’s stock price, the confidence of the entire new energy vehicle industry in the capital market has cooled by half.
As Zeng Qinghong, chairman of GAC, said before, the vast majority of new energy vehicle companies except Tesla are currently in a state of loss and cannot rely on their own product sales to achieve hematopoiesis in the short term .In such an environment, the capital market will become It is the most important lifeline for new energy vehicle enterprise development funds.
As the biggest IPO of Hong Kong stocks this year, Leaprun’s collapse has triggered a chain reaction much bigger than just a few days of sharp declines in the sector.
Many new energy car companies, including Aian, Nezha, and Weimar, have all announced plans for an IPO in 2023, and it can be said that Leap Motor’s plunge this time has made many potential investors see through the market The most authentic response to a new plan. car logo.
After that, it is difficult to reproduce the stock market myth of Wei Xiaoli’s sales of 100,000 vehicles with a market value of 100 billion. In the face of such negative expectations, will investors still buy into the companies will there be a subsequent IPO? Compared to the high level of certainty a year ago, the issue is now full of uncertainty.
However, in the final analysis, the indifference of the capital market did not start the new forces to build cars from scratch running. As mentioned above, since 2022, the desolate performance of NIO, Xiaopeng, Ideal, and BYD in the capital market should have been obvious to everyone, and the current opening breakout of Leaprun is only for the latecomers the highest wake-up call .
Overall, for new energy car companies, “the situation in the future will be more difficult”.
Original title: Zero run 31.9 billion evaporated in two days, scaring the entire new energy vehicle industry
