Analysis from Pi Securities (Pi) assesses this week’s SET INDEX at 1,610-1,650 points. Strategic investments are still focused on large cap stocks with fund flow, such as banks (BBL KBANK SCB TTB TISCO), retail (BJC CRC CPALL HMPRO). Oil (PTTEP), Tourism (AOT MINT SPA), Communications (ADVANC INTUCH), and recommends a gradual build-up of power plants (BGRIM GPSC) as interest rates approach their peak.
MINT (BUY / target price Bt36.00) estimates that there will be little downside to earnings forecasts for 2023-24. Expect earnings recovery to continue to accelerate from the second half of 2022 to the full year of 2023. Therefore, it remains stable. recommend BUY but lower our target price from Bt41.00 to Bt36.00 after cutting our 2023 earnings forecast by 23% to reflect higher utility and food costs.
KCE (BUY / target price Bt69.00) believes a 47% YTD drop in share price is an opportunity to accumulate. Currently, only stocks are traded. 19.27xPE?23E, lower than the Thai competitor average of 33.4xPE?23E.
PIE Securities said the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.26% on Friday evening after the US reported a higher than expected unemployment rate (expected 3.6%, coming out at 3.7%). Dollar depreciation and news that China could be preparing to open the country.
Friday’s outlook was somewhat positive with a number of numbers, including 2- and 10-year US Treasury yields falling along with a significant depreciation in the Dollar Index, although the US reported higher nonfarm payrolls in the market. But the unemployment rate appears to be higher than market expectations.
In terms of employment, employment in the sectors that increased in decreasing numbers were (1) the automotive and parts industry, (2) business services, (3) education and Medical business (4) Business related to tourism Considering US inflation in the month September found that industries that continue to accelerate inflation are (1) new vehicles (2) medical services. It is therefore believed that with the increasing number of jobs increasing in the decline in industries where inflation is still accelerating. Along with a higher than expected unemployment rate, the market was relaxed with inflation and interest rates.
Recently, the CME FED WATCH expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting in December to raise interest rates by only 0.5% with a weight of 52%, while another 48% weighted on a 0.75% interest rate hike .
The factor that the market will weigh this week is US inflation on Thursday. The results are known around 20.30 Thailand time. Bloomberg expects 8%YoY 0.6%MoM If it is lower than expected, it will put pressure on the Dollar Index, pushing risky assets to recover continuously. And the baht has the opportunity to continue to strengthen, supporting the flow of money, which Bloomberg recently reported that there is a chance in 2022 that tourists will travel to Thailand more than the target of 10 million people and there is a chance by 2023 that could. reaching 18 million people. With Chinese tourists as an advantage, this will increase the Thai current account balance to be positive and the baht has the opportunity to continue appreciating.
For domestic factors, focus on (1) Thai inflation, Bloomberg expects 6% YoY, lower than expected, to support baht appreciation (2) listed company earnings Q3/22