Signing an annex agreement with Kherson, etc.
The possibility of nuclear war with Russia is increasing
On the 30th (local time), Russia signed an agreement to annex Ukraine’s occupied territories and formalize its incorporation into the Russian Federation.
When the annexation operation is completed, Ukraine’s war exit strategy can be effectively blocked, and the fear of nuclear war is expected to increase.
Russian President Vladimir Putin held a ceremony in the Kremlin for the annexation of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), Zaporiza Oblast and Kherson Oblast territories occupied by Ukraine. Once the Russian Parliament and House of Representatives ratify the agreement and President Putin finally signs the agreement, the process of incorporating these regions will be completed. When Russia annexed the Krm Peninsula of Ukraine in 2014, all procedures were completed within six days of the local referendum.
Before signing the agreement, Putin also signed a decree recognizing Kherson and Zaporiza as independent territories. The DPR and LPR approved a decree recognizing an independent state on February 21, shortly before the invasion of Ukraine.
A plan was also prepared for the reconstruction of the attached area. According to the budget released by the Russian government, 3.3 billion rubles (about 82.2 billion won) will be allocated for regional reconstruction. In the West, the damage to the City of Mariupol, which is part of the DPR alone, was estimated at about $14 billion (about 20 trillion won).
It is analyzed that Russia’s annexation of the occupied territories tries to define these areas as Russian territory and the burden of Ukraine’s counterattack and support from the West. It is also interpreted as a measure to emphasize the need to declare a mobilization order and to quell public discontent.
Biden: “He will never, never, never admit”… United Nations: “No legal effect”
The problem is that this agreement made the exit strategy from the Ukraine war further away. Russia amended its constitution to prohibit the transfer of annexed territories. The possibility that Ukraine will give up its territorial recovery and start negotiations is not very high at the moment. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently emphasized that the annexation of occupied territories means that “there is no longer any dialogue with the Russian regime”.
Some critics say Putin may have thwarted the exit strategy by raising the stakes too much. “President Putin’s goal is to get the West to an end-of-war agreement,” Anatol Riven, director of the Quincy Institute, a US think tank, told CNN.
The annexation also raised concerns about the possibility of nuclear war. If the Ukraine attacks to recapture the annexed territory, Russia could consider using nuclear weapons as an attack on its territory.
The West stressed that the move would only deepen Russia’s international isolation. The President of the United States, Joe Biden, said at a summit with the South Pacific Islands at the State Department in Washington that “the United States will never, never, never recognize Russia’s claims to the territory of Ukraine.” “He was manipulated by Moscow,” he said. The Secretary General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, said in a press conference at the headquarters of the United Nations in New York that “any decision on the territory of Ukraine by voting has no legal effect.”
Russia is expected to rally the alliance and ensure the legitimacy of territorial annexation.