Russia Can Restart 80% of Black Sea Grain Terminals If Ceasefire Halts Attacks

Russia could restart roughly 80 percent of its grain terminal capacity in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov if a maritime ceasefire halts mutual attacks, according to industry data analyzed on Friday, September 25, 2026. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is leading international diplomatic efforts to restore the vital agricultural trade route, which handles a substantial share of Russia’s grain exports and has faced severe disruptions during the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Damage Concentrated at Key Terminals

An analysis of nine major grain terminals and smaller facilities in the Don river delta and Sea of Azov revealed that three key loading points have suffered heavy damage. These three terminals account for about 20 percent of Russia’s total export infrastructure in the region and could require months of repair work. NKHP, one of Russia’s three largest grain terminals located in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, sustained serious damage during an August 12 attack.

“At NKHP, that conveyor gallery was completely destroyed. It actually collapsed onto the road and was lying across it,” an industry source at Novorossiysk told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity due to sensitivity surrounding the issue.

The same source noted that staff members were sent home for a six-month period, leaving the timeline of the shutdown uncertain. While the company managing NKHP indicated repairs could take up to four months, operations at two neighboring Novorossiysk terminals, KSK and NZT, sustained only minor damage and remain ready to resume work.

Export Capacity and Infrastructure Bottlenecks

Total grain terminal capacity across the Black Sea and Sea of Azov region stands at approximately 67 million metric tons. Aside from the damaged sites, facilities with a combined capacity of about 53 million tons are currently idle due to ongoing security risks but could return to service if hostilities cease. However, other damaged facilities—including ZTKT at the Black Sea port of Taman and a facility in Taganrog on the Azov Sea—have completely halted operations. ZTKT, which holds an annual capacity of 5.5 million tons, was struck on July 30, while Taganrog accounts for a portion of the 6.7 million tons of combined annual capacity shared with Taman.

Before the escalation of attacks on ports and commercial vessels, the Black Sea route handled up to 70 percent of Russia’s overall grain exports. As the world’s leading wheat exporter, Russia has seen its shipments disrupted, contributing to rising global grain prices and renewed food security anxieties.

Diplomatic Initiatives and Alternate Routes

International mediation is underway to reopen the corridor. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on Friday that India, Egypt, and other Middle Eastern countries are involved in the diplomatic push alongside Turkey. The Kremlin acknowledged the existence of diplomatic contacts but stated that Russia is utilizing alternate export routes while ports remain vulnerable.