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Estimates: The Poles are sending Dud and Trzaskowski to Round 2. He broke the record

According to estimates based on interviews at 500 polling stations, the winner of the first round is Andrzej Duda. The exit poll attributes almost 42 percent to the conservative president. Rafał Trzaskowski will advance to the second round with him. The mayor of Warsaw was elected by 30 percent of the opposition Civic Platform.

Current estimates do not deviate in any way from what the pre-election polls suggested, although Duda and Trzaskowski strengthened them slightly. As expected, publicist Szymon Hołownia finished in third place, having already announced that he will support Trzaskowski in the second round.

However, official results may vary. In addition, 400,000 Poles voted abroad, which is not taken into account by exit polly. The census will probably last all night and may last until Tuesday or Wednesday.

Record interest

Poles voted in the first round of the presidential election on Sunday from 7 am to 9 pm. Since the morning, there have been long queues in front of polling stations across the country, caused by extreme interest and hygiene measures due to the coronavirus pandemic. Due to that, the deadline was moved from the 10th of May to the end of June at the last minute.

It is already clear that turnout will be among the highs and will probably be higher than in last year’s parliamentary elections, when 61.8 percent of eligible voters voted. There are a total of 30 million of them in Poland. According to the data of the State Electoral Commission, 24.08 percent of people canceled at noon, and at 5 pm the number jumped to 47.89 percent. According to the exit pole, the participation reached 62.9 percent.

A queue in front of one of the polling stations in Szczecin.

While in the morning the regions in the north-west of the country, where traditionally the current opposition traditionally scores, led the turnout, in the afternoon the participation in the regions in the south and east jumped. Lesser Poland and Subcarpathia are regions where conservatives have been winning for a long time.

A total of 11 men ran in the elections. You can browse the profiles of the six candidates with the highest support here:

What is the election about?

About the comfort that the Conservatives now have in the systemic changes according to the plans of the chairman of the Law and Justice Party, Jarosław Kaczyński. Last year, the ruling trio coaled defended the majority in the Chamber, but lost it in the Senate. The Senate opposition coalition thus returns laws to the Chamber of Deputies from the autumn, and thus “slows down” the legislative process.

Although the government comfortably outvotes the Senate, it means a delay. Until recently, the cabinet enforced changes in the law at an express pace within hours, at most days. And President Andrzej Duda, who belongs to the government camp, soon signed them in the vast majority of cases.

Kaczyński certainly does not want to repeat the inconvenience as with the Senate now, because the Polish president has a stronger veto than the senators. If the president returns the law to deputies, Kaczyński would have to collect a three-fifths majority in the Sejm, which he does not have. With the polarization of Polish politics and the inability of any political compromise, this would mean the de facto end of government laws.

The Polish president could significantly “make life uncomfortable” for the government when appointing judges and filling other positions, as well as in foreign policy. If Duda wins, no inconvenience is expected. The current president has received the nickname “ballpoint pen” from his critics – he will sign everything he gets on the table.

His rival Trzaskowski, on the other hand, made it clear before the election that he would not be reluctant to use the veto. According to him, Poland realized that it needed a strong president who would work with the government, but at the same time he would look under his hands and build a veto of hateful rhetoric and the division of people.