Energy costs, especially electricity costs, are more expensive due to fuel problems. which is currently the main cost of power plants, there is no tendency to ease from the estimates of The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) appeared on the proportion of fuel consumption in electricity production during the months of January-April 2023 or in the bill payment automatic electricity (Ft) round 1 / 2023. Domestic electricity production is still used. “Natural gas” is the main fuel, accounting for 54.20% of all fuels used to generate electricity.
In addition, it involves buying electricity from abroad. (Laos PDR and Malaysia) total 13.81% and lignite EGAT 8.46% Coal fuel imported from private power plants 6.25% Hydropower from EGAT 3.48% Fuel oil (EGAT and IPP) 0.73% Diesel oil (EGAT and IPP) 6.31 % and others 6.75%
The price of gas or LNG (Japan-Korea Market or JKM) from the beginning of 2021 at $ 10 / million BTU has increased to $ 30 / million BTU in October and predicts the trend of LNG prices in 2023. -2024 will be between $25- 33/million BTU
Although LNG needs to be imported at spot prices, which are more expensive than regular imports. Due to the decrease in natural gas production in the Gulf of Thailand. Both of the general gas volume, including the source, as well as the gap in the transition period of developers. Erawan gas field caused production to decrease from what was agreed In the last case, the responsible person is still not possible to find during Regulatory body – original developer and new developer
In addition to increasing the price of LPG gas, the skyrocketing cost of electricity also has complex problems from the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) has accepted the burden of fuel and electricity costs consistently on behalf of the people in accordance with current government policy. for people to pay electricity bills “below” reality, worth no less than 83,010 million baht, reflected in the retail Ft in the 4th period of 2022 (September-December) equal to 93.43 satang / unit, resulting in costs Electricity Currently has increased to 4.72 baht / unit
In order to bear the cost of fuel and electricity on behalf of such people, if EGAT still needs to follow government policy to “electricity bill” that the public has to pay “underpaid” affects EGAT’s “red” account as well as EGAT’s “liquidity” to a dangerous level if EGAT still has to bear the cost The cost of electricity was more than 100,000 million baht , similar to the incident with a fuel fund that tries to blindly freeze the price of diesel fuel according to government policy beyond the capacity of the fund
EGAT itself has identified the above danger. to the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) requesting an adjustment of the Ft in two implications: 1) a reflection of the actual fuel cost, and 2) an additional charge to be used to repay the fuel cost debt. EGAT bears the burden. As a result, the ERC has to announce a public hearing on the Ft increase in the period 1/2023 (January-April) for three cases:
1 Ft case charged at 224.98 satang/unit Divided into retail Ft estimates reflecting costs of 158.31 satang/unit and incremental collection to partially offset actual costs of 66.67 satang/unit so that EGAT can receive full reimbursement within one year from EGAT. the people in the amount of 81,505 million baht, resulting in the cost of electricity (excluding VAT) increased to 6.03 baht / unit
2 Ft case charged at 191.64 satang/unit Divided into retail Ft estimates reflecting costs of 158.31 satang/unit and incremental collection to partially offset actual costs of 33.33 satang/unit so that EGAT can receive full reimbursement within 2 years from EGAT . people in the amount of 101,881 million baht, resulting in the cost of electricity (excluding VAT) increased to 5.70 baht / unit
3 Ft case charged at 158.31 satang/unit Where EGAT has to pay the cost actually incurred on behalf of the people in the amount of 122,257 million baht, resulting in the electricity cost (excluding VAT) increased to 5.37 baht/unit
However, it can be seen that the electricity cost in all 3 cases of EGAT has to be adjusted from the current 4.72 baht / unit to between 5.37-6.03 baht / unit, depending on which method to choose. The least risky case for EGAT is case 1 where EGAT will receive the full amount of money back within one year, but will have to exchange it with the highest electricity tariff adjustment of 6.03 baht /unit, which is difficult receive it.
However, the National Energy Policy Council (NEPC) announced at a meeting on November 25, a natural gas management policy to reduce the burden of electricity costs during the current energy price crisis (January-April) by “asking for cooperation” or simply saying to PTT consider allocation “income” From the gas separator business, about 1,500 million baht per month for a period of 4 months, a total of 6,000 million baht, to help reduce the cost of electricity that will occur next year.
1,500 million baht from PTT will be used 1) as a “discount” on natural gas prices PTT sells to EGAT and 2) give a “discount” on natural gas prices for natural gas separation works when calculating the cost of LPG to’ w used as fuel. PTT sells to EGAT power plants – IPP power plants and SPP power plants at the “same price level” with the price used to estimate the electricity cost according to the formula for adjusting the Ft since the month it has NEPC decision.
by the policy of The said NEPC is an attempt to “weight” the Ft that will affect the price of electricity for the period January-April 2023, to decrease from the guide proposed by the ERC, or at least to be close to that. The electricity cost currently collected is 4.72 baht as proposed by the industry as much as possible.
This all depends on whether PTT is willing to “cut revenue” from its own gas separation site to help pay. EGAT as per NEPC proposal or not and how?
