“Those who panic do not understand what they are doing!”

We launched the K-virus into the territory of the flu, which provided an increase in mortality against the background of the destruction of the flu. And what will come instead of a coronavirus?

It is necessary to treat the spiritual state of society, and not just people who have somatic diseases. Panic escalation is the shortest path to an epidemic. The main thing now is the reassurance of society, the return of a healthy mind. The first thing that the authorities should do is to say that there is nothing to worry about, that this epidemic is no different from the previous ones. And carry out only those anti-epidemic measures that are beneficial. Which ones – only scientists can decide.

“The first thing that the authorities should do is to say that there’s nothing wrong, that this epidemic is no different from the previous ones” “The first thing that the authorities should do is to say that there’s nothing wrong, that this epidemic is no different from the previous ones”


– Igor Alekseevich, you are a doctor, doctor of medical sciences, and you have analyzed a large layer of statistics, information on the current coronavirus pandemic. What did you as a doctor pay attention to first of all?

– The situation should be considered against the backdrop of the most powerful organizational, economic, financial impacts that have been taken to stop COVID-19. But with doctors, the paramount principle is do no harm! And I ask myself the question: what is being done is right or wrong?

Measures are now being taken to actively suppress coronavirus. At the same time, it is assumed that the viruses are in a chaotic relationship with each other, and the more energetically to hit, for example, the same flu, the better the prospects and forecast. And when you start to plunge into the reality of microbiology, you find that there is not chaos, but entire communities interacting with each other! All these bacteria, viruses … The virus, by the way, is very difficult to determine from a philosophical perspective …

“Is he alive or not?”

– In the external environment, he is inanimate. But it is programmed so that as soon as it enters the cell, it immediately begins to use its structures in order to become alive.

As for coronaviruses (K-viruses), they began to deal with them in the 1960s. Identified many varieties of K-viruses, about seven dozen. Some of them are friendly to each other, help. And others are in antagonistic relationships. But virology as a science mainly studies viruses separately. And you need to study them in collaboration!

– And how does the coronavirus interact with other viruses?

– A special relationship for K-viruses with the flu. Influenza is a strong antagonist to the K-virus. Where the incidence of influenza is high, there is little K-virus.

Now the task is to destroy the family of K-viruses. It is also known that the K virus is about three times stronger than the flu virus, which also has several species.

Statistics show that in the 1990s, 4-5 million people got the flu every year. Although these figures can be questioned, since it is difficult to diagnose with the flu. Look: I’m a doctor, I go to the site. I see: ordinary SARS, weak. I diagnose SARS. Then I suddenly see severe cases, and they said from above that the flu epidemic is beginning, and I already make the diagnosis of “flu” in severe cases. But it’s not at all proven that this is actually the flu!

The situation is the same with diagnostics in the USA. We are told: “There they are testing!” But in practical healthcare there is no possibility of such mass testing.

– Back to the flu statistics.

– In the 2000s, a sharp drop in the number of cases began: 600 thousand, 500 thousand, 100 thousand, 50 thousand, 12 thousand. Now we have practically no flu. Some say that there was simply an order not to diagnose the flu. But this is unlikely. One way or another, the flu has disappeared. And the Ministry of Health says: “See how we managed to reduce the flu a hundred times!” The head of Rospotrebnadzor says: “Look at how successful the vaccines have been in terms of killing the flu!”

But you need to look not only at the flu, but also at other indicators. For example, mortality from pneumonia. Now they are afraid of the K-virus. But they die not from him, but from pneumonia! And pneumonia can be of various etiologies.

– That is, the reasons are different?

– Of course! And all lead to pneumonia. I start to look at the dynamics of mortality from pneumonia in the 90s, zero and find that it is growing … How so? After all, the flu has disappeared. Then I look at the incidence of ARVI — it remains stable. Excuse me, but the flu has disappeared! And then my hypothesis turns into a conclusion. If the appeal for ARVI is stable, and the flu virus has almost disappeared, then this is some other virus …

– Provokes pneumonia? Which one?

– Just K-virus! K-virus epidemics have been going on for 15 years. We thought that the viruses do not act in concert with each other, and removed the flu, and the holy place does not happen empty, an arsenal of K-viruses crawled into its place.

– And before they did not detect the K-virus in large quantities?

– Not revealed.

– If your hypothesis is correct, then several years ago there were many cases of K-virus, but for some reason they were not detected. What is the reason for this?

– Epidemiologists say that in the general incidence of SARS, K-viruses used to occupy about 10%, but because they are few, they did not pay much attention to them.

– Just did not do specialized analyzes?

– Remember the joke about the “elusive Joe”: why is it elusive? And who needs him to catch him? And here it is exactly the same. He was not identified, and now everyone has the feeling that suddenly something suddenly appeared, a terrible mutation, the CIA planned and so on. I see no reason for such conspiracy theories. The flu just left, they kicked it out, thinking that no one would come in return, but the K-virus came. They began to look, began to deal with the K-virus.

– Have the flu been kicked out with vaccinations?

– Vaccinations. As the saying goes, “we cannot wait for mercies from nature, to take them from her is our task.” But nature is more complicated than we assume. All these Ebola, swine flu, SARS are a kind of revenge of nature for the lack of foresight of scientists. Although not scientists are to blame, science is developing in stages. And I want to turn to my fellow virologists and epidemiologists: “Dear friends, look how difficult life is in the microworld, so we must understand these relationships in order not to make things worse!” And it turned out worse, look: K-virus is more aggressive than ordinary flu.

“More aggressive, in what sense?”

– Mortality is higher. If in 1990 there were 13 thousand fatal pneumonia, then in 2016 – 31 thousand. We launched the K-virus into the territory of the flu, and it ensured an increase in mortality against the background of the destruction of the flu.

And now we are going to destroy the K-virus. Are we sure that something else more terrible will not come in its place? Who will answer then?

Once we thought that with the discovery of antibiotics, all bacteria would be destroyed. And at first it worked out great. But life is trickier. Bacteria began to adapt, mutate. We began to look for stronger antibiotics, because the old ones do not work. The same thing happens in virology.

– That is, we use an antibiotic – and from it, conditionally, 90% of the microorganism population dies. The remaining 10% initially had some kind of protective mechanism against this antibiotic. These 10% continue to multiply, and now the entire population is becoming insensitive to this antibiotic. Find a new one, the situation repeats itself.

– That’s right. I mainly deal with the epidemiology of noncommunicable diseases. And it turned out that there are mental epidemics. Now one of the arguments in favor of the fact that something terrible is happening is the situation in Italy. Show columns of cars with coffins. And before that there were pictures: there is a young man with a backpack, and the mask on it, suddenly he fell, twitched and died. With pneumonia, such deaths do not happen! Or in the shops the corpses are. This is also not from pneumonia! So, there are interested forces in order to escalate the panic.

In addition, we are told that they accurately diagnosed COVID-19. But medicine does not have such an accurate diagnostic method! We can only diagnose a combination of related K viruses. And the diagnoses can also be made different. Someone will say: this is staphylococcal pneumonia. And the other will say: K-virus. And the third will say: “Nothing of the kind! This is swine flu. ” It all exists now, it has not disappeared.

Moreover, with insurance medicine there is a commercial interest in diagnosing the K-virus, colleagues from Spain and Italy told me this. If a relative died from the K-virus, then insurance is paid, but if ordinary pneumonia is not. And relatives, in order to get insurance, ask the doctor to make a diagnosis of “K-virus pneumonia.” And doctors agree, getting some of the insurance money for it.


– How do you think events will develop?

– To answer this question, we must return to psychology. We were convinced that life, even in the microworld, is very complicated. But many still think that there are only individual chaotic viruses. Our liberals and society perceive as chaos of individuals. If someone is bad, then he himself is to blame. If suicide is also to blame. And life is much more interesting and complicated. Moreover, our leading sociologists spoke about this in the 19th century, but they did not listen to them then, and were accused of biologizing. They said that society is an organism with its own internal laws.

There are bees, and there is a bee swarm. We, doctors, are still treating bees, and a bee swarm needs to be treated. We treat ants, but we need an ant hill. Or a humane man, as the philosopher Alexander Zinoviev said.

Now a new direction is emerging — social medicine. It is necessary to treat society. Society is also suffering. Ignorance of this and inability to monitor the state of society lead to disasters. I am absolutely sure that the Soviet Union did not explode at the expense of external agents. Agents have always been and will be. Something was brewing inside, and no one was watching, because there was no understanding that society was not only GDP per capita, refrigerators, sausages, health care, but also the internal atmosphere, mood.

– Is it possible to somehow measure this atmosphere?

– We found the criteria, studying the causes of the sharp increase in mortality with the beginning of liberal reforms. In 20 years, we have lost about 14 million people compared to the baseline of the 1980s. And due to the collapse of the birth rate, we lost another 20 million. Total 34 million people!

Demographers are not interested in the reasons, they simply record: mortality, plus, minus, decrease in fertility. But we are interested in an analysis of all the factors that caused such terrible demographic upheavals. And most important: these demographic reactions were superfast, literally a year or two. Obviously, this is due to the psyche. And we introduced the concept of “factor X of intangible nature.” But how to measure it?

– Maybe the number of suicides, the level of alcohol consumption?

– Of course! And what exactly can we determine by the number of suicides?

– Depression?

– Yes. And even hopelessness.

– In fact, depression is a feeling of hopelessness. When every day is like the previous one, when every day you think that there is no way out, that it won’t be better. By the way, I heard that depression cannot be perceived as just a bad mood. This is a serious condition that lasts for years …

– Absolutely correct. Science has not seriously dealt with this yet either, because the materialistic approach dominated. I am an adherent of dialectical materialism, an atheist, but the life of us medical scientists has made us go where we never went. Look at the concepts of “soul”, “spirit” … And then I take off my hat to religion, there are colossal studies in the field of social psychology. Modern psychology, figuratively speaking, walks in diapers, she is at the strength of one and a half hundred years, and there are centuries! From there came the ideas of “soul”, “spirit.” This was explained religiously. But now I see that they are right in speaking of soul and spirit. They are, and we scientists were too dismissive of this. And science, in principle, refused to study intangible reality.

Back to the measurement methods. Hopelessness, depression can be measured by the number of suicides. And aggression, anger how to measure?

– Crime? The number of murders, grievous bodily harm? And not only serious …

– Yes, we offer markers with which we measure the state of mind. They called it the “trace detection method.” I reveal material traces, but I know that they are dictated by the state of mind. And how to measure social optimism? Youth, for example? You can take weddings as a marker.

– Now there are a lot of divorces.

– Divorces certainly mean that the atmosphere in the family is terrible. It is interesting that in the 1920s the concept of “moral statistics” was introduced. But then they abandoned him.

So, now we decided to find out whether the decline and rise in mortality are related to the markers listed above? And they saw an amazing correlation, confirming the correctness of religious ideas about the dead spirit and the life-giving spirit. If the spirit is “dead”: longing, hopelessness, anger, as in the early 90’s, then murders, suicides, divorces take off, mortality rises. Moreover, a lag of time was revealed – six months to a year … First, the spirit suffers, and after six months, mortality increases. About this I wrote the book “Psychodemography.”

Now back to the K-virus. It seems that science (both demography and medicine) is completely unaware of the presence of these powerful links between the social atmosphere and demographic processes.

“Actually, it’s weird to hear.” Everyone knows that when you are in a good mood, you recover faster. When a bad mood, then the disease drags on. This is at the level of everyday consciousness. “Laughter prolongs life” – we have heard it a thousand times. In my opinion, these are obvious things.

– Back in the Middle Ages they said that the arrival of a clown in a city means more than ten drug-loaded mules for health. But this is not in science! Everyone knows this very well, but science does not use it!

– It is very strange…

– Why not use it? Because it is immaterial, and if immaterial, it means religion.

– Why intangible? The number of crimes is a material thing, the number of suicides is also.

“Suicides are material, they reflect longing in the soul.” But longing itself is intangible.

– Nevertheless, psychiatrists deal with depression and mental problems.

– Of course they do. But there is no integral idea of ​​a person, there is no idea that the somatic, bodily depends directly on the spirit.

Even some of my priestly friends believe that violating moral principles leads to debauchery, people start smoking, drinking, using drugs, and therefore mortality increases. And they do not believe me that the spirit can act directly.

And this is exactly so! Therefore, we say that the state of the atmosphere in society is reflected in the immune system!

And in terms of epidemiology, you need to know that any epidemic has a triad: a source with a pathogen, a carrier and a recipient. We are now engaged in the source and the carrier. And no one takes care of the recipient. But you need to deal with the recipient, that is, society.

Those who are now in a panic do not even understand what they are doing!

I will give an example. Peter, the beginning of the 90s. The rise of mortality! Why did I take Peter? Because it is a city with quality healthcare, good statistics. It is large, and migration there is not the same as in Moscow, much less. So, mortality from salmonellosis, from dysentery, from diphtheria, from pneumonia suddenly rises there. Incredible numbers: 600%, 900%! Syphilis is acute – 1700%! When I voiced these figures, speaking to academician-immunologists at the Russian Academy of Sciences, I realized that as soon as they heard this, they simply disconnected, because this cannot be! But this is iron statistics, official, competent. Published by the Leningrad Health Statistics Service.

And the question arises: how to explain this growth? There are two explanations. First: spirochetes, salmonella, dysentery sticks, gonococci, Trichomonas, scabies mites should have been suddenly activated …

– That is, direct reasons?

– Yes. Is it possible to believe that they suddenly suddenly activated? What happened Prostitutes brought ten times to St. Petersburg? And because of this, all infections soared? Impossible to imagine this.

– For what period?

– 1990-1994. In 1994, the growth was 10 times, 16 times for various diseases. Outrageous numbers, their brain does not perceive. But if you recall what kind of period it was? We then lost our country, I remember …

“I remember too …”

– We were told that all our ideals: the Stakhanovites, the heroes of the Great Patriotic War, Gagarin – this is all junk, but now effective managers will come, and everything will be right. And such a longing in my soul! I don’t feel like living … I remember that very well.

This is the question of the panic that is now being created. В состоянии паники падает иммунитет, специфический и неспецифический.

Смотрим опять на 1990-е годы. И тут мы выходим в новую сферу, совершенно неизвестную — управление инфекционными эпидемиями с помощью неинфекционных рычагов. Так вот, после пика 1994 года к 1997 году все вернулось на прежний уровень. И гонорея почти исчезла, и сифилис упал, и пневмония/дизентерия/дифтерия… Как это объяснить? Санитарно-эпидемиологическими мероприятиями? Нет. Никто даже не обратил на это внимания, не было объявлено об эпидемии. Как тогда? А просто за следующие четыре года люди немножко пришли в себя. И мы видим на графике, как падает общая смертность, и падают все инфекционные заболевания.

Теперь возвращаемся к COVID-19. Надо всем понять, что инфекционные эпидемии зависят не только от вируса, переносчика, но и от реципиента. Не надо загонять никого в безумную панику и тоску!

— Что же вы предлагаете?

— Я предлагаю сказать, что ничего страшного нет. Эта эпидемия ничем не отличается от предыдущих эпидемий. Что нужно делать? Соблюдать те же мероприятия, что и раньше. И еще создать научно-экспертный совет, чтобы ученые давали рекомендации и говорили: «Вот это принесет пользу, а это пользы не принесет».

Нам говорят про рекомендации ВОЗ. А что такое ВОЗ? Я там несколько лет был экспертом. Это чиновники. Там нет коллектива независимых ученых, которые трезво оценивают ситуацию. А нужны коллективы или центры, которые профессионально должны давать рекомендации в плане принятия тех или иных организационных мер.

Беседовал Дионис Каптарь

«Завтра», 18.04.2020

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