“CIMBT” indicates next year, keep an eye on 6 risk factors that will disrupt the money market, capital market and economic overview. Ready to estimate Thailand’s GDP in 2022 to grow 3.2%, and in 2023 to grow 3.4%, noting that exports will start to grow until the middle of next year
7 December 2022 – Mr. Amornthep Javala, Executive Vice President executive officer of research office And the Investment Advisor, CIMB Thai Bank (CIMBT) revealed that the money market, the capital market and the general economy have gone through a lot of bad things and instability in 2022, but it year 2023 is still more worrying. Among the risks this year that could become more serious are: 1. Prolonged aggression from Russia in Ukraine. Until it affects the supply chain of animal feed, fertilizer, as well as other goods 2. The Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to raise interest rates to prevent inflation. Until the recession of the United States economy more than expected, China has been locked down in many areas continuously according to the Zero-Covid measures, which could lead to exports and production in other countries being affected as well due to a shortage of raw materials from China 4 European public debt crisis affecting confidence in the euro As a result, investors reduced their holdings of risky assets and returned to holding US dollar-denominated assets again. 5. Emerging market crisis. Because this year, many countries face the risk of debt default. These countries may face liquidity problems. having to ask for help from international organizations But this problem is unlikely to be so serious that it spreads to countries with high international reserves and no confidence problems, and 6. Mutated COVID.
Regarding the Thai economy, CIMB’s Bank of Thailand Research Office maintained its economic forecast for 2022 at 3.2% and for 2023 at 3.4%, despite the fact that the Thai economy expanded better than expected during the quarter . 3/2022, but the main recovery comes from opening the city and opening to foreign tourism. The business sectors benefiting are still concentrated in hotels, restaurants and transport, while spending in other sectors has not expanded significantly. Maybe with the general income not increasing much But the price of goods increased so high that people were careful with their spending.
Although private investment is an aid to economic recovery. ordering machinery and raw materials including the real estate construction sector However, government spending and investment continued to drag the economy this year.
“The recent recovery has not yet shown that it has come from long-term demand and is ready to jump from spending or flaring demand. Yes, we therefore expect the Thai economy in Q4/2022 to expand by 3.7% from the same period last year. Exports are likely to continue to slow into next year amid slower global growth. China’s export content is likely to be negative next year. which on the whole will inevitably affect Thai exports especially the automotive group and parts and electronics while the processed food and agricultural products group should still be able to sustain itself,” said Mr Amornthep.
Mr. said Amornthep that during the period when Thailand’s economy was improving the role of government spending and investment may decrease Government spending may not expand from this year. and should not be able to expect large-scale economic stimulus projects With a limited budget used mainly for the welfare of the poor In addition, if the government spends too much money to stimulate spending, demand can accelerate faster than supply growth . This imbalance will lead to massive inflation. or a lack of confidence in the domestic financial sector. that the government should support economic recovery and focus on income distribution in the next year
Regarding the direction of the policy interest rate in Thailand, it can be seen that there will be a gradual increase in interest rates. In addition, the United States is about to raise interest rates. And it should raise interest rates to the highest level in the 1st and 2nd quarters of next year, so the Bank of Thailand (BOT) should stop raising interest rates in the middle of the year. This pushes Thailand’s policy rate to 2% in the middle of next year from 1.25% at the end of this year, but Thailand’s inflation rate is still at risk of staying above the top 3% inflation target. rate cut in the second half of next year.
However, in terms of the direction of the exchange rate, it was seen that the baht tends to fluctuate in line with the movement of lower oil prices. The baht is expected to stabilize at 36.00. baht against the US dollar at the end of this year. which is still high in the first half of next year In addition, the direction of exports is not bright and the income from tourism has not fully returned. This should continue to cause Thailand’s current account deficit until the middle of next year. and should cause the baht to depreciate during that period before appreciating towards the end of the year following a recovery in tourism revenue. and Thailand’s current account surplus Looking at the baht at 34.50 baht per US dollar by the end of 2023.
