US stocks rose sharply last week. After some major banks proposed to raise interest rates in November, the violent increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve will end. The three major US indices rose sharply in this atmosphere. Unfortunately, Hong Kong stocks did not benefit at all. The Hang Seng Index fell immediately after the market opened yesterday, and then experienced its lowest level in years a lot. Mainland real estate and Chinese banking Stocks embedded together Mainland-related stocks appear to have become Knife’s target. In October, the market fell by 2,535 points, or 14.7%, which was the worst October since the financial tsunami in 2008. The Hang Seng Index has fallen for 4 consecutive months and is down more than 10% for the second consecutive month .
Whether the rise in violent interest rates in the United States has ended, the analysis of major banks is very hypothetical. At least under the current circumstances, there is little concrete evidence that the inflation of the United States States have reached a peak. If the upward pressure on prices does not stop, even if there is a recession, the central bank may not be able to slow down or even cut interest rates. The big players on Wall Street have to hype it all day. The previous game was to sell low before negotiating interest rates, which prevented the Fed’s will to raise interest rates. Now the Fed has declared that it will not pays attention to the Fed’s response. stock market, and even believe that the decline of the stock market is conducive to cooling down. After discussing the interest rate for a while, at most, after discussing the interest rate, it is found that the estimate is different from the reality, and then backhand speculation.
US interest rate hike is slowing down, Hong Kong is not easy to follow
The United States is attracting global money under the effect of rising interest rates. Speculators do their best to speculate when they have the chance to speculate. The situation in Hong Kong is very different. With the loss of money from ATMs, it loses the ability to follow up on the top of interest rates and is sensitive to interest rates.Zhong fell more than two cents. If we want to explain from the basics, even if interest rates in the United States stop rising, they will remain high for a period of time, along with a reduction in local bank balances, the United States will rise interest rates this month, and Hong Kong will have a great opportunity to increase, and there will be an immediate shock. The interest rate in the United States has increased several times now, and there will be interest rate cuts in the future; the interest rate in Hong Kong is still low, and Hong Kong people are not used to the increase in interest rates. the property market has accelerated and softened After falling again, Henderson (012) and New World (017) continued to hit one-year lows.
In general, large-scale real estate stocks in Hong Kong have low debts. Although the property prices have risen slowly in the past few years, the stock prices have fallen slightly, and the discounts have widened .The phenomenon of high property prices and low stock prices has appeared in this round. It’s a bit of a pity that I can’t help but want to buy flat goods. Regarding the phenomenon of property investment, but the property price is high and the stock price is flat, Lu Yuren exchanges and analyzes with his peers from time to time. He probably has they several explanations. The most common reason is that buildings, especially residential buildings, have practical functions, and under the shortage of supply, supported by huge inflexible demand, stocks are just investments, and the market worried that property prices will fall Even if market conditions are good, some investors would prefer to buy other growth stocks. , which makes the valuation of this sector low. Currently, the interest rate of bank deposits has increased. Small and medium banks have just raised the 3, 6, 9 and 12 month Hong Kong dollar fixed deposit rates to 4.6%, 4.9%, 5% and 5.1%. The 12-month US dollar fixed deposit interest rate is as high as 5.1%, and there are more options for collecting interest.
Second, the liquidity of real estate stocks is lower than the liquidity of real estate stocks. As soon as there is a change, they will be the first to be sold One wave after another, real estate stocks will lag behind. Finally, this is the leading real estate company in Hong Kong. The big shareholder family has a lot of money, and they don’t care about the price of the stock price Assets sold flat. Taking Sino Land (083) as an example, the stock price closed at 8.39 yuan yesterday, down 2.6%, hitting a new low in one year, and the lowest price ever saw a 58% drop in assets at 8.31 yuan. Xinhe’s current price earnings ratio is 6 times, and the interest rate is 11%. The most important thing is that the company’s leverage ratio is only 11%, even if it sells half the price to pay debts and becomes debt -free company, its assets are more than 17 yuan, which is equal to double the stock price.
Bank of China Mainland Wan PMI is selling flat
But the stock market has a clear saying: a transaction is a reasonable price. It has been a long time since real estate and real estate stocks have had different paths between high and low prices. The market is used to buying high and selling high, and selling at an even price. It is a bit illogical mathematical calculations, but the world does not necessarily start from rationality. Buying real estate stocks can not live, but the rate of return will be higher, so it is better to start from this angle. Since the property price may not have adjusted yet, real estate stock returns and dividends may also be affected by the increase in interest rates. but whether to buy or not the first and foremost question is still How much affordability does it have.
The Hang Seng Index opened 32 points lower yesterday and rose again and again. It rose 250 points in the afternoon and reached a peak of 15,113 points. After that, it turned and fell, and finally closed at 14,687 points, down 176 points. , with a turnover of 130.9 billion yuan; the HSCEI closed at 4,938 points, down 90 points. In particular, the SEC Index closed at 2852 points, rising 29 points against the market trend. Tencent (700) rose 2.4% to close at 205.6 yuan; Meituan (3690) rose 2.5% to close at 124.8 yuan, becoming a new force in the falling market.
Chinese property stocks were sold early Longfor chairman (960) Wu Yajun resigned due to health problems The stock price plunged 44% to a 5.5-year low, as low as 7.26 yuan. Later, the group announced that the early repayment would be end next year. Part of the syndicated loan was 5.1 billion yuan, and shareholders increased their holdings by 3 million shares, which fell 24% throughout the day and closed at 10 yuan. Affected by the news, some of Longfor’s domestic bonds fell into temporary suspension. According to the analysis of major banks, resignation will have a negative impact on the stock price, and it is expected to bring liquidity pressure. Wu Yajun divorced a year ago and received a batch of shares the year before, which has become another sensitive point. Longfor is the most difficult and purest share in private enterprises, but it has started to chase in recent months, and many people are afraid to pick up the goods when they are plugged in.
Domestic banking stocks fell together China Construction Bank’s third-quarter net profit (939) rose 8.6% year-on-year, and its stock price fell nearly 5% to close at 4.17 yuan; ICBC (1398) fell 5.3% to close at 3.41 yuan; Bank of China (3988) fell 3%, reported 2.53 yuan. China’s official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in October was 49.2, the lowest in three months, below the expected 49.7. Foreign investors are bearish on the mainland economy and the property market, and bearish on banks is inevitable.
Jin Riku
