As the domestic stock market fell sharply after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September, the ratio of actual counter trades to accounts receivable exceeded 20% for the first time in 13 years since the 2008 financial crisis .Experts are of the opinion that there is a high possibility of a rebound as it has entered the bottom section, but it has been agreed that the possibility of a further decline is open as the volatility of the stock market can be further increased due to the nature of the stock. counter trading.
According to the Financial Investment Association on the 29th, on the 28th, the actual share of counter trades to receivables from consignment transactions was 13.0%, and the amount was 29.413 billion won. Although slightly lower than the previous day (20.1%), the balance of consignment receivables was 285.674 billion won, an increase of 58.9 billion won from 226.783 billion won the previous day. An increase in the balance of receivables means that the number of counter trades can also increase accordingly.
On the 27th, the proportion of over-the-counter trading recorded the third highest level since 2006 when the count began. This is the first time in 13 years since 21.8% on July 14, 2009, during the financial crisis, and the largest anti-trading ratio was 23% recorded on October 27, 2008.
The financial authorities extended the exemption from the obligation to maintain the credit loan collateral ratio, which had been in place since last July, to reduce the damage caused by the sharp downturn in the market from the end of September to the end of December . As a result, securities firms are currently suspending over the counter trading for a day. The collateral ratio was also reduced to 130% by all brokerage firms. However, the stock price has shown a sharp decline recently, and as more and more investors invested in debt in July and August, the number of trading counters also increased.
The actual credit loan balance decreased from 23.3 trillion won at the beginning of the year to 17.49 trillion won on July 7 due to the influence of anti-trading. However, as the stock market rebounded, the amount of ‘debt investment’, which is invested in debt, showed an upward trend again, and on 22 August, the balance of credit loans increased to 19.54 trillion won.
Usually, securities companies require a collateral ratio of 130% to 140%. If the stock price falls and the collateral ratio is reduced, additional stocks are required to be purchased to meet the collateral ratio. This has a negative impact on the stock price as the order is 20-30% lower than the previous day’s closing price. The vicious cycle of ‘share price decline’ → ‘selling by securities companies’ → ‘further decline in stock prices’ is repeated.
Na Jeong-hwan, a researcher at Cape Investment & Securities, said, “As the domestic stock market has shown a sharp decline since the September FOMC, the number of accounts whose valuation has fallen is lower than the parallel ratio (140%) has increased rapidly. , leading to anti-trading volumes The combined credit transaction loan balance of the market and the KOSDAQ market was lower than at the beginning of the year (23 trillion won), but it is counted higher than in July, so it’s against no means low. Since the trading counter is a factor in the volatility of the stock price, the decline in the stock market is amplified,” he noted.
On the contrary, there is an opinion that the bottom is not far away. Kang Dae-seok, a researcher at Yuanta Securities, said, “The surge in anti-trading volumes is a factor that makes us expect that the bottom is not far away due to the so-called capitulation or sell-off .”
However, the problem is that there are still many stocks with a high proportion of credit loans, so the main supply is still alive. According to the Korea Exchange, there are 37 stocks with a credit ratio of 5% or higher in the KOSPI market and 173 in the KOSDAQ market. The credit ratio refers to the proportion of stocks bought on credit out of the total number of listed stocks. The higher the ratio, the greater the likelihood that the stock price will fall due to cross trading.
According to the market, Samchully has the highest share of 10.26% and KODEX KOSDAQ 150 Futures Inverse with 10.23% in the securities market. In addition, Daesung Holdings (10.04%), Hanshin Machinery (9.51%), and Hyein (9.38%) are in order. In the KOSDAQ market, Seonkwang was the only stock to exceed 10% with 12.18%, while SDN (9.86%), Daeju Industrial (9.74%), T-Scientific (9.46%), and Cammsys (9.45%) also high.
An official from the financial investment industry said, “With the introduction of the anti-trading system, investors often fill the collateral ratio before automatic sales by securities companies to prevent this. There is a limit, so if the bear market continues, the volume of trading over the counter could increase further,” he said.
- reporter information
- positive mother
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